Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
39.33% ( -0.3) | 27.61% ( 0.33) | 33.06% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 48.65% ( -0.98) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.95% ( -1.23) | 57.04% ( 1.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.07% ( -0.99) | 77.93% ( 0.99) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.73% ( -0.75) | 28.27% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.01% ( -0.96) | 63.99% ( 0.96) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.82% ( -0.64) | 32.18% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.34% ( -0.74) | 68.66% ( 0.74) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.74% Total : 33.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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