Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
15.78% ( 0.09) | 20.08% ( 0.06) | 64.13% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 53.08% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.18% ( -0.09) | 41.82% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.78% ( -0.09) | 64.22% ( 0.09) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.56% ( 0.06) | 39.44% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.86% ( 0.06) | 76.13% ( -0.06) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.66% ( -0.07) | 12.34% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.83% ( -0.14) | 38.16% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.94% Total : 15.78% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.08% | 0-2 @ 10.65% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0) 0-3 @ 7.43% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 6.91% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 3.62% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.5% Total : 64.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 21 |
2 | Porto | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 15 |
5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
9 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
10 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 6 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 |
17 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 |
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