Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Casa Pia |
47.84% ( -0.03) | 25.67% ( 0.01) | 26.49% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 51.12% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.72% ( -0.05) | 52.28% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.02% ( -0.04) | 73.98% ( 0.03) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.14% ( -0.03) | 21.86% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.9% ( -0.05) | 55.09% ( 0.04) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.42% ( -0.02) | 34.57% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.7% ( -0.02) | 71.29% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.74% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 47.84% | 1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.26% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.3% 2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) Other @ 2.17% Total : 26.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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