Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 78.59%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 7.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.24%) and 1-0 (10.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.71%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
78.59% ( 0.02) | 14.11% ( -0.01) | 7.3% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 44.35% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.43% | 37.57% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.2% | 59.8% ( 0) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.31% ( 0) | 7.69% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
72.58% ( 0.01) | 27.42% ( -0.01) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.05% ( -0.02) | 51.95% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.02% ( -0.02) | 85.98% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
2-0 @ 13.14% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 11.24% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 10.24% 2-1 @ 8.61% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.36% ( -0) 4-0 @ 7.21% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.72% 5-0 @ 3.7% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.42% 3-2 @ 2.41% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.58% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 3.37% Total : 78.58% | 1-1 @ 6.71% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4% ( 0) 2-2 @ 2.82% ( -0) Other @ 0.59% Total : 14.11% | 0-1 @ 2.62% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.2% ( -0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 7.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |