Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 78.59%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 7.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.24%) and 1-0 (10.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.71%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.