For the first time since being rebranded in 2006, the New York Red Bulls have a chance to start a Major League Soccer campaign with three straight wins when they host Minnesota United on Sunday at Red Bull Arena.
New York have been clinical in the early stages of the 2022 season, scoring seven goals after two matches played, including four in a 4-1 win at Toronto last weekend, while The Loons have collected a pair of 1-1 draws so far, fighting their way back from a goal down last week against Nashville SC.
Match preview
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Without getting too ahead of themselves, Gerhard Struber and his Red Bulls team must be delighted with how they have begun the year, as they are one of only four MLS sides who currently hold a 100% domestic record.
Their Austrian coach is finally starting to see his group consistently play the high press effectively, and they have made the most of the turnovers that system has created.
They have been able to fire 16 total shots on target in two matches, although many would argue that this may not be much of a feat, coming against two teams who tend to allow their share of goals in TFC and the San Jose Earthquakes.
This goal output is something that we have rarely seen from the Red Bulls through the years, as they have tallied back-to-back three-goal games for the first time since 2018.
Last season New York made the playoffs for a 12th straight time, mainly because they had to play with more desperation knowing how deep a hole they dug themselves in the early portion of that campaign.
In the early going of this year, it seems as though Struber and his men are still playing with that same urgency, going unbeaten now in five straight regular-season encounters dating back to 2021, outscoring their opponents 9-3 over that stretch.
Sunday will be their first match of the season at Red Bull Arena, in a place which has proven to be extremely difficult for visiting sides to win, with New York going unbeaten in their final seven matches played there a year ago.
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Their home opener did not begin how they would have hoped, but Minnesota did not panic despite going a goal down after five minutes, as they kept pushing forward before equalising with fewer than 20 minutes remaining.
Already we are seeing more structure and balance within this group, with plenty of composure from their backline last Saturday, which is not easy to do when you have a striker with the potency of Hany Mukhtar bearing down on you.
Adrian Heath likes to see his team stretch the field out wide, and even though they have some fullbacks away due to injury, there seems to be enough depth for them at that position as their defenders did well to come into the attack against Nashville and add another dimension to their counter-attacks.
Heath and his staff have emphasised the importance of slowing down the Red Bulls charge by holding them up in midfield while having strong first touches so as not to put themselves under too much pressure.
The Loons should be confident in their defensive game, conceding just a single goal against Philly and The Black-and-Gold, although with only two goals off 10 shots on target, they will want to show more precision in the final third.
Winning first balls, quick passes and remaining patient will be critical against a Red Bulls team who are happy to sit back and wait for their opponents to make a mistake.
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Team News
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Red Bulls winger Lewis Morgan was named the MLS Player of The Week, scoring a hat-trick in Toronto, as he had plenty of help from teammate Patryk Klimala, who set him up for all three strikes and Aaron Long notched his first of the season, heading in the lovely free-kick delivery from Frankie Amaya.
Andres Reyes and Wikelman Carmona are expected to miss this match with foot injuries, Cristian Casseres has a hip flexor issue, Cameron Harper is struggling to recover from a quad problem, while Luquinhas and Ashley Fletcher are still waiting to have their visas sorted out.
Caden Clark, who is on loan from RB Leipzig, will hope to make his first appearance against his hometown club, as the 18-year-old played his youth career with the Minnesota Thunder.
Bakaye Dibassy was perhaps the best defender for The Loons a week ago as he did well to cover the spaces on the wing and made some terrific crosses and first passes out from the back, being named to the MLS Team of The Week with an 88% passer rating.
In one game, Hassani Dotson already has half of the goals that he scored a season ago, notching the equaliser at home to Nashville for his first of the year, while Emanuel Reynoso is still searching for goal number one of this campaign and the club this week signed Homegrown Player Devin Padelford to a three-year contract.
Patrick Weah has a knee injury, Abu Danladi, Jacori Hayes and Romain Metanire are all questionable with thigh issues, Kervin Arriaga has a problem with his thorax and Chase Gasper may not be ready to go because of a head injury.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Tolkin, Long, S. Nealis, D. Nealis; Morgan, Yearwood, Amaya, Clark; Ryan, Klimala
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Fisher, Boxall, Kallman, Dibassy; Dotson, Trapp; Lod, Reynoso, Hunou; McMaster
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-0 Minnesota United
The Red Bulls are on a roll at the moment, creating plenty of scoring opportunities, making those chances count while never appearing panicked at the back, and when you put that all together, it is difficult to envision them losing to a team who still lack attacking depth.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
