Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 35.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.