Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 32.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.