Aiming to reach a 10th European Under-19 Championship final in their nation's history, Spain Under-19s meet four-time finalists Italy Under-19s in Thursday's semi-finals.
The teams convene at Malta's Ta'Qali National Stadium, after the Azzurrini scraped through to the final four by finishing second in Group A and La Rojita cruised through unbeaten.
Match preview
After coming through both the qualifying round and elite round as group winners, Spain have swept into the semi-finals of European Under-19 Championship 2023 by posting seven points from three games in Malta; conceding only one goal in the process.
Sealing the Iberian nation's 11th appearance in the tournament's semis, Jose Lana's boys saw off Iceland in their opening Group B match, before crushing Greece 5-0 and then holding Norway goalless to top the group table.
Previous iterations of La Rojita have gone on to lift the Under-19 Euros title on eight occasions, with the most recent coming in 2019, when a Ferran Torres double secured victory over neighbours Portugal in the final.
This year's crop - featuring former Barcelona striker Victor Barbera, who recently signed a four-year deal with Club Brugge - are aiming to emulate such success when the 2023 edition comes to a climax on Sunday, but first they must progress past a tenacious Italian side.
While Spain eased into the finals, by comparison, Italy's route was less straightforward: after finishing third in the qualifying round, in the elite round they then won Group 2 ahead of Germany and Belgium.
Monza midfielder Samuele Vignato was the Azzurrini's top scorer during the process with three goals, and the 19-year-old was on target again when they dispatched 10-man hosts Malta 4-0 in their opening group game this summer.
In fact, Alberto Bollini's side scored three of four penalties awarded on that occasion, but such fortune was in short supply three days later, when they were hammered 5-1 by Portugal, a team who now take part in Thursday's other semi-final, against Norway.
Juventus youngster Luis Hasa then turned in Italy's equaliser against Poland following good work from Vignato, and that ultimately proved enough to set up a showdown with Spain.
Now making their nation's eighth semi-final appearance at this level, the Azzurrini's last Euro Under-19 triumph came some 20 years ago, when Giampaolo Pazzini scored in both knockout rounds and Portugal were once again beaten finalists.
Team News
After making some changes for their final group game, such as benching star striker Victor Barbera and in-demand Real Valladolid defender Ivan Fresneda, Spain will be back at full strength on Thursday.
Villarreal forward Ilias Akhomach is set to start in an advanced midfield role for La Rojita, for whom Angel Alarcon and Cesar Palacios (both two goals) join top qualifying scorer Barbera as leading marksmen in the finals.
However, Assane Diao impressed with his work-rate and pace up front on Monday, so coach Jose Lana could reward the 17-year-old with a place in the starting lineup against Italy.
The Italians' scorers in the finals so far include Samuele Vignato and Cher Ndour, the latter of whom is set to move from Benfica to Paris Saint-Germain.
Roma's Giacomo Faticanti captains the Azzurrini from central midfield, while his former Giallorossi teammate Filippo Missori - who switched Rome for Sassuolo earlier this summer - should start on the right flank.
Luca Lipani returns from suspension, having been sent off during the first half of last week's five-goal mauling by Portugal.
Spain Under-19s possible starting lineup:
Iribarne; Fresneda, Casas, Gasiorowski, Valle; Garrido, Palacios; Garcia, Akhomach, Perez; Barbera
Italy Under-19s possible starting lineup:
Mastrantonio; Dellavalle, Chiarodia, Regonesi; Missori, Ndour, Faticanti, Kayode; Hasa, Vignato; Esposito
We say: Spain Under-19s 2-0 Italy Under-19s
Taking into account Spain's route through both qualifying and the group stage, La Rojita pose the most attacking threat and boast a more solid defence than their semi-final opponents. While Italy's squad features some talented stars of the future, they are collectively vulnerable at the back.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Under-19s win with a probability of 51.37%. A win for Italy Under-19s had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain Under-19s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Italy Under-19s win was 1-2 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
Jonathan O'Shea
