Sporting Kansas City welcome Canadian outfit Vancouver Whitecaps to Children's Mercy Park on Saturday, in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs for the MLS Cup.
The home side finished the regular season in third spot, only three points behind Western winners Colorado Rapids, while Vancouver finished sixth and one point above eighth-placed Los Angeles Galaxy.
Match preview
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Peter Vermes's side do not enter Saturday's clash in good form, having lost their last three games in the MLS, including a 1-0 defeat against Real Salt Lake on the final day.
That encounter was looking to be heading for a goalless draw but five minutes into stoppage time, Damir Kreilach broke the deadlock and snatched all three points for Salt Lake.
A run of three defeats in a row is Sporting Kansas' worst string of results all season, and does not bode well for the hosts ahead of this weekend's playoff match.
Kansas City made it to the quarter-finals of the playoffs in 2020, winning on penalties against San Jose Earthquakes in round one before eventually missing out to Minnesota United in the last eight.
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The Whitecaps head into Saturday's clash in much better form than their hosts, with Vanni Sartini's side currently on a six-game unbeaten run, which meant that they ended the regular season with a 1-1 draw.
Fredy Montero had given Seattle Sounders an early lead in that game on decision day, but Ryan Gauld equalised for Vancouver, which turned out to be a costly goal for the Sounders, who were leapfrogged by Colorado Rapids into first spot in the Western Conference.
Vancouver can be encouraged by their last result against Sporting Kansas, a 2-1 win in October, but the first meeting between these two teams came in Kansas, where the hosts dispatched the Canadian side and won 3-0.
This is the Whitecaps' first appearance in the playoffs since 2017, and having had a much-improved campaign compared to recent years will be encouraging for Vancouver heading into Saturday's encounter.
However, what is not so encouraging for the away side is their form on the road this season, having only won twice away from the BC Place Stadium in the regular season, but they could look to take the tie to extra time and penalties after drawing 10 of their 17 away games this campaign.
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Team News
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Sporting Kansas City midfielder Roger Espinoza will be forced to miss out this weekend as he is suspended, and his presence is likely to be missed having featured in 32 of the 34 league games this season.
Alan Pulido, Felipe Hernandez and Jaylin Lindsey are all going to continue to be sidelined due to injury, but the back four is expected to remain the same as last time out.
Luis Martins, Andreu Fontas, Nicolas Isimat-Mirin and Graham Zusi will make up the back four, while Khiry Shelton will be looking to provide the attacking threat up top for the home side.
Vancouver Whitecaps are certain to be without Caio Alexandre and Tosaint Ricketts as the duo continue their recoveries from injury, with Sartini expected to name a similar lineup to the one that drew against Seattle.
Gauld will look to be the creative spark in a number 10 role behind Brian White and Cristian Dajome, who will both lead the line for the Whitecaps, while Russell Teibert and Leonard Owusu aim to protect the defensive trio from a deeper midfield position.
Goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau has not kept a clean sheet for Vancouver since the beginning of October, and he will want to keep Sporting Kansas out to maximise his side's chances of winning.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Martins, Fontas, Isimat-Mirin, Zusi; Mauri, Duke, Walter; Salloi, Shelton, Barber
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Nerwinski, Veselinovic, Jungwirth; Gutierrez, Owusu, Teibert, Brown; Gauld; Dajome, White
We say: Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Vancouver Whitecaps
(After Extra Time)
Going off form, the visitors should be the more confident of the two sides, and that could be the decisive factor on Saturday in what will be a tight game.
Despite not winning many games away from home this season, Vancouver will be looking to exploit the same weaknesses that other teams have most recently managed against Sporting Kansas.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 68.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 13.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Kansas City would win this match.
