Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 41.46%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 30.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.