VfL Bochum and FC Koln go head to head at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion in a midtable Bundesliga clash on Saturday evening.
The hosts got their revenge on Mainz 05 in the cup during the week, whilst their upcoming opponents will be looking to bounce back from a couple of painful defeats.
Match preview
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Bochum have made a strong start to life in Germany's top flight, with 23 points from their opening 19 games seeing them occupy 11th spot; a position they clung onto despite a loss in their previous game.
A Jeremiah St Juste goal proved to be enough to secure Mainz a 1-0 win last weekend, but Thomas Reis's side were able to earn revenge when the two sides met again in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday.
Once again, it was Die Nullfunfer who opened the scoring, but a brace from Milos Pantovic and then a third in the 80th minute courtesy of Eduard Lowen took the hosts through to the quarter-finals.
A cup run is less important to Die Unabsteigbaren than league survival, though, and they must be sure not to slip from their current position.
Just a single victory in their last five matches either side of the Bundesliga winter break and a mere five-point gap to the relegation zone could spell danger.
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Koln did not have such an enjoyable day in the cup on Tuesday, instead suffering a harrowing loss on penalties.
After a goalless 90 minutes, second-tier Hamburger SV took the lead in just the second minute of extra time and looked to have clung on with seconds remaining.
The Billy Goats then won a penalty in the 120th minute, which was converted by Anthony Modeste, but the penalty shootout would not be so kind, Florian Kainz slipping whilst striking the ball, thus making a double-contact and seeing his attempt deemed to be a miss.
Things had been going better in the league for Steffen Baumgart's side, but their three-match winning streak came to a crashing end on Saturday, as they were easily brushed aside 4-0 by Bayern Munich on home soil.
Nonetheless, these two tough defeats have only slightly dampened what has been an excellent start under Baumgart, who arrived from SC Paderborn in the summer.
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Team News
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Reis made five changes to the Bochum side which took on Mainz for the second time in three days, and a few of the new entries may well find that they did enough to hold down a place in the starting XI on Saturday.
Jurgen Locadia could be one of those after an impressive debut, but Gerrit Holtmann is the more likely to breaking into the first team, earning the nod over Christopher Antwi-Adjei.
Sebastian Polter and Takuma Asano, who were rested in midweek, should reclaim their places in the XI.
Baumgart also mixed things up as his side were knocked out of the cup and will likely now revert to his tried and tested league setup.
That would mean a return for Modeste in a front two alongside Mark Uth. Salih Ozcan, Benno Schmitz and Ondrej Duda should also all come back into the team after starting on the bench on Tuesday night.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Stafylidis, Bella-Kotchap, Leitsch, Soares; Pantovic, Losilla, Rexhbecaj; Asano, Polter, Holtmann
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Ozcan; Schaub, Duda, Kainz; Modeste, Uth
We say: VfL Bochum 2-2 FC Koln
This is a tough one to call, with the two sides doing well overall but having had a few tough games recently. Both teams will be determined to bounce back but may well cancel each other out, ending in an entertaining draw.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 2-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
