Two sides battling for spots in the top five of the Primeira Liga table will square off on Sunday, as Vitoria de Guimaraes play host to Estoril Praia.
With both teams experienced dips in form, the visitors currently sit a point and two places above their opponents in sixth spot, while also holding a game in hand.
Match preview
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Following the appointment of Pepa as manager over the summer, Vitoria de Guimaraes looked somewhat rejuvenated at the beginning of the 2021-22 Primeira Liga season, firmly establishing themselves in the race for the top five with 22 points from their opening 14 games, including six victories.
However, their form has taken a dip in recent weeks, and Os Vimaranenses have now failed to pick up a win from their last four outings in the Portuguese top flight.
After a disappointing defeat to strugglers Santa Clara, Pepa's men played out a draw with Boavista before falling just short in a 3-2 loss to fifth-placed Gil Vicente.
They then looked set to have put an end to their dip and picked up a crucial win against seventh-placed Portimonense last time out, as Nelson Luz had them ahead, only for Anderson Oliveira to find the net in the 85th minute, salvaging a point for his side and keeping them above their opponents.
As a result, Os Vimaranenses remain eighth in the league table, although, with just three points between themselves and fifth place ahead of a clash with a close league rival, their situation could quickly swing back for the better.
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They welcome an Estoril Praia side also looking for a victory after a three-game winless run of their own.
Considering they were playing second-tier football last term, Estoril's showing so far this season has been particularly impressive, with the Canarinhos earning 18 points from their opening nine league matches.
However, Bruno Pinheiro's side have slightly lost a grip of a top-five spot recently, picking up just one win from their last eight matches - a 1-0 victory over basement side Belenenses, while they come into Sunday's game on the back of consecutive defeats.
The newly-promoted side were firstly beaten 1-0 by Moreirense, before a valiant effort at home to Porto saw them fall just short, eventually losing 3-2 despite leading 2-1 heading into the final 10 minutes through Arthur and Andre Franco.
While a narrow loss to the league leaders is far from embarrassing, the Canarinhos may be disappointed by the late manner of their defeat, and, with Gil Vicente within reach, they will look to correct their form with a seventh league win of the campaign at the weekend.
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Team News
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Vitoria de Guimaraes are without defender Falaye Sacko, who is on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations, although both Alfa Semedo and Abdul Mumin have exited the tournament and could be available.
Forwards Bruno Duarte and Oscar Estupinan are also expected to return and will battle to lead the line, while Marcus Edwards has served a suspension and could start on the wing.
With Ricardo Quaresma set to miss out through injury, Edwards, Rochinha and Ruben Lameiras will likely find themselves battling for two spots in the front three.
Estoril will have to deal with the major loss of winger Chiquinho, who recently departed for Wolverhampton Wanderers after contributing three goals and three assists in the first half of the Primeira Liga campaign.
Elsewhere, midfielder Bruno Lourenco is suspended, while Andre Clovis and Lucas Africo will also sit out Sunday's game.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Ferreira, Borevkovic, Mumin, Soares; Andre, Semedo, Silva; Edwards, Estupinan, Rochinha
Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:
Rodrigues; Soria, Ferraresi, Willian, Joaozinho; Rosier, Gamboa, Franco; Xavier, Fonte, Gomes
We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-1 Estoril Praia
Given the similar form and seasons that both teams are experiencing, we cannot quite pick a winner on Sunday.
They will each look for a crucial victory in the race for top-five spots but could eventually cancel each other out at the Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
