Wales finished second to Italy in Group A, while Denmark defied the odds to finish as runners-up to Belgium in Group B despite losing their first two games.

Match preview

Wales players, including Gareth Bale, celebrate their Euro 2020 win over Turkey on June 16, 2021 © Reuters

Five years on from their memorable run to the Euro 2016 semi-finals, Wales have a chance to create more happy memories after reaching the knockouts in successive tournaments.

The Dragons lost 1-0 to Italy in their final group match, but that is a result Rob Page likely would have accepted ahead of the match as it ensured his side remained in second.

Matteo Pessina's deft finish shortly before half time proved the difference in Rome, with Wales having to play 35 minutes with 10 men after Ethan Ampadu's red card.

Ultimately, it was the 2-0 win over Turkey four days prior that sealed Wales's spot in the last 16, that coming on the back of a slightly undeserved 1-1 draw with Switzerland.

Page was able to rotate his side for the Italy game, which was the Dragons' second loss in 16 competitive matches. Not since June 2019 have they lost successive competitive games.

However, Wales have lost their only two previous matches in Amsterdam - against the Netherlands in 1988 and 2014 - and they will not have any supporters present in the ground.

Denmark's Mikkel Damsgaard celebrates scoring their first goal against Russia at Euro 2020 on June 21, 2021 © Reuters

COVID-19 travel restrictions have prevented the 'Red Wall' from making the trip, whereas Denmark supporters will be allowed to attend en masse in what should be a huge advantage.

Denmark will also have the backing of the neutrals, no doubt, given the events that unfolded in their opening group match against Finland.

The sight of Christian Eriksen being resuscitated on the field will live long in the memory of those who watched on, not least the playmaker's own teammates.

That the Danes had to continue the game from where it left off less than two hours later beggars belief, but the 1-0 loss to Finland did not prove too costly in the end.

Indeed, Kasper Hjulmand's side also lost their next game - a 2-1 reverse to the world's top-ranked team Belgium - before seeing off Russia 4-1 last time out in Copenhagen.

That made Denmark the first team in European Championship history to reach the knockout stages of the competition having lost their first two group games.

This will be the Red and White's first appearance in the latter stages of the Euros since 2004, and like on that occasion they will be aiming to reach at least the quarter-finals.

Denmark have won their last three competitive meetings with Wales in a run stretching back to June 1999, though this is the first meeting between the sides at a major tournament.

Wales European Championship form:

Wales form (all competitions):

Denmark European Championship form:

Denmark form (all competitions):

Team News

Wales attacker Gareth Bale pictured at Euro 2020 on June 16, 2021 © Reuters

Wales will be without the suspended Ampadu, but Page otherwise has no known injury issues to contend with.

The Dragons named an unchanged side for their opening two games, with Kieffer Moore spearheading what was effectively a 4-5-1 formation.

After changing system and personnel against Italy, Page seems almost certain to go back to the same XI that started the draw with Switzerland and victory against Turkey.

That will mean starts for Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, who have had a little over half (49) of Wales's 97 shots at Euro 2016 and Euro 2020.

As for Denmark, they will of course still be without Eriksen as he continues to recover from the cardiac arrest suffered against Finland a couple of weeks ago.

The Inter Milan midfielder is Hjulmand's only injury or suspension absentee. On the basis of the performance against Russia, the Danes may well stick with the same lineup.

The back-three formation paid off, with Daniel Wass and Joakim Maehle operating as wing-backs and Martin Braithwaite playing just off Yussuf Poulsen up top.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg set up two goals from midfield against Russia and has three assists for the tournament - no Denmark player has ever recorded more at a major tournament.

Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Roberts, Mepham, Rodon, Davies; James, Ramsey, Allen, Morrell, Bale; Moore

Denmark possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Christensen, Kjaer, Vestergaard; Wass, Hojbjerg, Delaney, Maehle; Braithwaite, Damsgaard; Poulsen

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We say: Wales 1-1 Denmark (Wales to win on penalties)

Denmark got the better of Wales home and away when the sides met in the 2018 UEFA Nations League and are seven places higher than their opponents in the FIFA rankings.

However, the Dragons have had a day's extra rest and have more recent experience of competing in the knockout stages of a major tournament, which will surely come in handy.

None of the previous 10 meetings between the sides have finished level, with Wales winning four to Denmark's six, but we can see the game going the distance.

Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 51.03%. A win for Wales had a probability of 25.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Wales win was 2-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.