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Wales national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Nov 16, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Millennium Stadium
Belgium national football team

Wales
1 - 1
Belgium

Moore (32')
Morrell (34'), Moore (80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
De Bruyne (12')
Hazard (71'), Saelemaekers (75'), Dendoncker (82')

Preview: Wales vs. Belgium - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Wales and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Wales will welcome Belgium to Cardiff on Tuesday evening knowing that a draw would be enough to secure second position in Group E ahead of the Czech Republic.

Rob Page's side have already claimed a World Cup 2022 qualification playoff spot through the UEFA Nations League but will be determined to secure second in the group to ensure that they are seeded for the semi-finals.


Match preview

Wales' Aaron Ramsey celebrates scoring against Belarus on November 13, 2021© Reuters

Wales put on a show for their home supporters on Saturday evening, as Aaron Ramsey (two), Neco Williams, Ben Davies and Connor Roberts found the back of the net in a 5-1 victory over Belarus.

Page's team are now second in Group E, three points clear of third-placed Czech Republic, who need to beat Estonia on Tuesday to stand any chance of finishing second in the section and qualifying for the playoffs.

Wales are already guaranteed a position in the playoffs due to their UEFA Nations League performance but will need to finish second to have a chance of being seeded, which would allow them to play at home in the semi-finals, and a point against Belgium will be enough to claim the runners-up spot.

The Dragons have won four, drawn two and lost one of their seven Group E matches, and they are unbeaten in their last five games in the section, picking up three victories in the process.

Wales have not been present at the finals of a World Cup since 1958, when they reached the quarter-finals, but the nation have had two successful back-to-back European Championships, making the semi-finals in 2016 and round of 16 in 2020.

Belgium manager Roberto Martinez on June 29, 2021© Reuters

Belgium, meanwhile, have been the standout team in Group E, winning six and drawing one of their seven matches to collect 19 points, which has left them five points clear of second-placed Wales.

Roberto Martinez's side, as expected, will be present at the 2022 World Cup, and they will be looking to build on their success in both 2014 and 2018.

Indeed, the Red Devils reached the quarter-finals in 2014 before finishing third in 2018, but they were disappointingly knocked out in the quarter-finals of this summer's European Championship.

Belgium lost to both France and Italy in the UEFA Nations League last month, which would certainly have dented confidence, but they managed to return to winning ways on Saturday, overcoming Estonia 3-1 in Brussels courtesy of goals from Christian Benteke, Yannick Carrasco and Thorgan Hazard.

Martinez's team have actually only won one of their last five matches against Wales in all competitions, but that was the reverse fixture in this section, recording a 3-1 victory back in March.

Wales World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W

Wales form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W

Belgium World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Belgium form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Wales attacker Gareth Bale celebrates scoring against Belarus on September 5, 2021© Reuters

Wales will be without the services of Ethan Ampadu for Tuesday's match with Belgium through suspension, as the defender was booked during the victory over Belarus on Saturday.

Chris Mepham and Chris Gunter are battling to replace Ampadu in the starting XI, but Page could otherwise name an unchanged side, with Gareth Bale, who won his 100th cap against Belarus, featuring alongside Daniel James in a front two.

Bale, who controversially joined up with the squad despite not playing for Real Madrid since August through injury, was replaced at the interval of Saturday's affair, but the substitution was planned, and he is expected to be fit to feature here.

As for Belgium, head coach Martinez is expected to make at least a couple of changes to the side that took to the field against Estonia last time out.

Thorgan Hazard came off the bench to register on Saturday and is pushing for a spot in the XI, while Dries Mertens is also likely to return in the final third of the field.

Martinez, who is missing star forward Romelu Lukaku through injury, could also decide to drop Eden Hazard down to the bench, potentially pushing Carrasco into a more advanced area.

Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Mepham, Rodon, Davies, Williams; C Roberts, Ramsey, Allen, Wilson; James, Bale

Belgium possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Castagne, Denayer, Vertonghen; Meunier, De Bruyne, Witsel, T Hazard; Mertens, Benteke, Carrasco


SM words green background

We say: Wales 1-1 Belgium

Wales need a point to guarantee second position in the section, and we can see Page's team, backed by a vocal home crowd, doing enough to hold Belgium to a draw. The visitors do not have an awful lot to play for on Tuesday and were far from at their best against Estonia last time out.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 42.41%. A win for Wales had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Wales win was 2-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Wales vs Belgium

Wales
25.1%
Draw
23.1%
Belgium
51.8%
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Wales attacker Gareth Bale celebrates scoring against Belarus on September 5, 2021
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