Two teams on the opposite ends of 1-0 scorelines at the weekend will lock horns in Wednesday's Premier League clash at Vicarage Road, as Watford play host to Crystal Palace.
The Hornets picked up their first victory of the Roy Hodgson era at Aston Villa last time out, while the Eagles suffered a narrow London derby defeat to Chelsea.
Match preview
© Reuters
After 270 minutes of top-flight football failed to produce a goal for Watford under Hodgson, none other than top scorer Emmanuel Dennis snapped the Hornets' goalless streak to hand them all three points at Aston Villa.
The Nigerian attacker's bullet header from Ismaila Sarr's cross settled the contest in Watford's favour in the 78th minute, with Watford once again producing some stellar defensive work under Hodgson - who now prepares for a swift reunion with Palace - to pick up a potentially priceless three points.
Watford remain firmly embroiled in the relegation dogfight, though, as Hodgson's side remain in the bottom three in 18th and are four points adrift of Newcastle United, so they cannot clamber their way to safety no matter what transpires this week.
However, an away victory and clean sheet could just be the catalyst for change after their 12-game winless run came to a welcome end at Villa Park, but not since the 4-1 thumping of Manchester United in November have Watford won on their own turf.
Indeed, the Hornets have lost each of their last six at Vicarage Road and have failed to find the back of the net in each of their last three, as a measly tally of seven points unsurprisingly represents the worst home record in the Premier League this term.
© Reuters
Lady luck was seemingly on Crystal Palace's side when Chelsea paid a visit to Selhurst Park, as £97.5m man Romelu Lukaku remained largely anonymous and Hakim Ziyech saw his strike ruled out by VAR for the European champions.
However, the hard work of Patrick Vieira's side was ultimately undone by the Moroccan attacker in the 89th minute, as he met Marcos Alonso's cross to finish from a tight angle and extend Palace's lowly winless streak in the top flight.
The Eagles are still searching for their first league win since the turn of the year and have now gone six in the top flight without success - a dismal streak which sees them enter the midweek round of fixtures down in 13th in the table.
Only a calamitous collapse would see Palace dragged into a relegation battle, with an eight-point chasm separating them from the bottom three, but they travel to Vicarage Road winless in seven Premier League away matches - drawing each of their last three - since that memorable Etihad victory over Manchester City back in October.
Furthermore, Palace suffered a 1-0 defeat to Watford at Vicarage Road earlier this season in the EFL Cup, with that result marking the Hornets' sixth home game in a row without defeat against the Eagles since a 1-0 loss in September 2015.
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Watford duo Joao Pedro and Juraj Kucka will face late fitness tests after knocks ruled them out of the win over Villa, and the Hornets continue to make do without defender Nicolas Nkoulou due to his thigh problem.
Dennis and Samir were both casualties from the weekend, and while the former is only thought to be nursing a minor knock, Samir's head injury will need assessing.
Christian Kabasele and William Troost-Ekong will be ready to deputise if Samir is indeed ruled out, but Hodgson would ideally like to name an unchanged XI this week.
As for the visitors, Vieira was forced into a goalkeeping change against Chelsea as Jack Butland replaced Vicente Guaita at half time, with the Spaniard going off due to a knee complaint.
Conor Gallagher will make a welcome return to the fold after being unable to face his parent club, but Palace are unlikely to welcome Nathan Ferguson back to the fold before the start of April.
Joel Ward was absent against Chelsea due to a knock, so Nathaniel Clyne could keep his place at right-back as Eberechi Eze rejoins the attack in place of Jordan Ayew.
Watford possible starting lineup:
Foster; Femenia, Cathcart, Samir, Kamara; Sissoko, Louza, Cleverley; Sarr, King, Dennis
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Butland; Clyne, Andersen, Guehi, Mitchell; Gallagher, Kouyate, McArthur; Eze, Mateta, Zaha
We say: Watford 1-1 Crystal Palace
Watford have not given their fans much to cheer about on their own turf recently but may sense an opportunity to aid their bid for survival against a wholly inconsistent Palace side.
Vieira's men possess the attacking talent capable of breaching the Hornets' staunch backline, though, and we think this game has a draw written all over it.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Watford had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.13%) and 1-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.
