Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guatemala win with a probability of 78.35%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for British Virgin Islands had a probability of 8.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guatemala win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.67%) and 1-2 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.08%), while for a British Virgin Islands win it was 2-1 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guatemala would win this match.