World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Nov 19, 2023 at 1pm UK

Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Burundi
1 - 2
Gabon

Bigirimana (87')
Mukombozi (45+2'), Abdul Razak (45+3')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Allevinah (35'), Bouanga (83')
Obiang (41'), Ecuele Manga (43'), Loufilou (45+2'), Moucketou-Moussounda (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Burundi and Gabon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burundi

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Burundi 3-2 Gambia
Thursday, November 16 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Gabon

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Gabon 2-1 Kenya
Thursday, November 16 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	7
2	Gabon	3	1	5
3	Comoros	3	-2	3
4	Ghana	3	-2	1

The last three meetings between Sunday's opponents have produced a combined four goals, and we are anticipating another low-scoring affair here. That said, we can see Gabon getting the job done by a narrow margin in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Burundi win was 1-0 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gabon would win this match.

Result
Burundi	Draw	Gabon
32.86% ( 0.14)	28.57% ( 0.02)	38.57% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 45.81% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.44% (

-0.04)

60.55% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.34% (

-0.03)

80.66% (

0.03)

Burundi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.86% (

0.08)

34.14% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.17% (

0.09)

70.83% (

-0.09)

Gabon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.56% (

-0.11)

30.43% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.36% (

-0.14)

66.64% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Burundi 32.85%

Gabon 38.57%

Draw 28.57%

Burundi	Draw	Gabon
1-0 @ 11.16% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0) Other @ 2.32% Total : 32.85%	1-1 @ 13.28% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.39% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0) Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.57%	0-1 @ 12.36% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 38.57%