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Serie A | Gameweek 16
Dec 4, 2021 at 2pm UK
San Siro
Salernitana

AC Milan
2 - 0
Salernitana

Kessie (5'), Saelemaekers (18')
Bakayoko (24')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Di Tacchio (30'), Djuric (86')

Preview: AC Milan vs. Salernitana - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Salernitana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having got back on track with a midweek win, AC Milan return to San Siro on Saturday, seeking another Serie A win against rock-bottom Salernitana.

Successive defeats had provided a first serious setback for the second-placed Rossoneri before they swept aside Genoa on Wednesday, while their southern counterparts fell to an 11th league defeat of the campaign.


Match preview

AC Milan's Junior Messias celebrates scoring their first goal on November 24, 2021© Reuters

A much-improved showing from Milan helped them to end a run of four league games without victory, as their 3-0 win at Genoa took the Rossoneri back to within a point of the Serie A summit.

Following on from his crucial Champions League intervention against Porto last month, summer signing Junior Messias excelled on his first start for the club, doubling Milan's lead just before the break and then slotting home another during the second half, after Zlatan Ibrahimovic had opened the scoring.

Their convincing win at Marassi in midweek sees Milan back ahead of city rivals Inter in the table, and they are currently tucked in just behind leaders Napoli following the latter's slip-up at Sassuolo.

Rossoneri coach Stefano Pioli will therefore hope that his side's slump is at an end, as they are set to face crucial games against Liverpool and Napoli before the upcoming mid-winter break.

Having conceded 16 goals in their previous nine Serie A games - including seven in defeats to Fiorentina and Sassuolo - a clean sheet was welcome for Milan on Wednesday, and they will now fancy their chances of keeping another versus the league's lowliest side. Against Salernitana, then, Pioli will expect his men to seal a sixth win from eight on home soil this weekend.

Salernitana players line up before their match against Roma on August 29, 2021© Reuters

Yet another reverse at Stadio Arechi in midweek represented Salernitana's sixth loss from eight home matches in Serie A this season, as their latest visitors returned north with all three points.

A 2-0 defeat to under-pressure Juventus - following goals in either half from Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata - would hardly register as a surprise for the modest club from Campania, who were promoted from Serie B last spring; however, they remain rooted to the foot of the table approaching the halfway stage of their comeback campaign, with both Milan clubs still to play before the end of the year.

Between their matches with the Milanese giants, Salernitana must also visit a flamboyant Fiorentina side and then journey to Genoa for a Coppa Italia tie, as the hectic schedule fails to relent.

Currently conceding goals at an unsustainable rate of over two per game, the Granata have won just two of their 14 league matches this season, and have picked up just a solitary point since the end of October, so coach Stefano Colantuono will be wary of getting cut adrift should results not improve soon.

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

Salernitana Serie A form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

AC Milan's Simon Kjaer celebrates scoring against Manchester United in the Europa League on March 11, 2021© Reuters

The latest in a long line of defensive injuries beset one of Milan's mainstays on Wednesday, as centre-back Simon Kjaer suffered a serious knee injury and was forced off after only five minutes in Genoa.

As the Danish defender is now set to undergo surgery to repair ligament damage, the recently returned Fikayo Tomori should be joined by either Matteo Gabbia or Alessio Romagnoli at the heart of the hosts' defence, with the latter now back from suspension.

However, Davide Calabria, Ismael Bennacer and Ante Rebic are all struggling for fitness and Olivier Giroud is currently hampered by a hamstring problem which could keep him out until 2022. With Zlatan Ibrahimovic taking a much-needed rest, Pietro Pellegri is set to start for the first time in attack.

Salernitana, meanwhile, opted for a back five against Juventus in midweek and could retain that setup at San Siro, with most of the same personnel staying in place on Saturday.

An injury to Cedric Gondo during the draw at Cagliari last week puts the Ivorian forward's place up front in jeopardy, so Simy and Milan Djuric will battle it out with Federico Bonazzoli - the Granata's only goalscorer in their last five outings - to start up front.

Stefan Strandberg, Matteo Ruggeri and Mamadou Coulibaly are expected to miss out through injury, but veteran winger Franck Ribery has recovered from a knee problem in time to make the trip north.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Florenzi, Romagnoli, Tomori, Hernandez; Bakayoko, Kessie; Leao, Diaz, Saelemaekers; Pellegri

Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Belec; Zortea, Veseli, Gyomber, Bogdan, Ranieri; Di Tacchio, Schiavone, L. Coulibaly; Ribery; Simy


SM words green background

We say: AC Milan 2-0 Salernitana

A rejuvenated Milan were far livelier in midweek, so the opportunity to welcome struggling Salernitana to San Siro presents them with another chance to secure three points to keep their Scudetto challenge ticking over.

Goals have been in particularly short supply for the southern side, so the hosts can flood forward without fear of conceding and cruise to victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 68.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 12.94%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for AC Milan in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AC Milan vs Salernitana

AC Milan
94.8%
Draw
4.3%
Salernitana
0.9%
116
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AC Milan coach Stefano Pioli reacts on November 24, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli17122326121438
2Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Lazio1711153224834
5Fiorentina1594228111731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna167722318528
8AC Milan167542516926
9Udinese166281925-620
10Roma175482323019
11Empoli164751416-219
12Torino175481722-519
13Genoa173771426-1216
14Lecce174491129-1816
15Parma173682333-1015
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410


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