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Belenenses
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20
Feb 20, 2021 at 3.30pm UK
Estádio do Restelo
Nacional

Belenenses
2 - 1
Nacional

Ribeiro (29'), Cardoso (69' pen.)
Cardoso (30'), Esgaio (52'), Ribeiro (59')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Gorre (44')
Pedrao (52')

Preview: Belenenses vs. Nacional - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Belenenses and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Belenenses host Nacional on Saturday, with both sides looking to move up the Primeira Liga table, and further away from the relegation zone.

The hosts will be looking to stretch their league unbeaten run to four matches, while Nacional suffered their first league defeat in five games last time out, and will be in search of a win at the Estadio Nacional.


Match preview

Belenenses head coach Petit pictured in June 2020© Reuters

The hosts come into this game having drawn their last three Primeira Liga matches, seeing them move up to 13th place in the division.

That run included a commendable 0-0 draw with Porto, when the defending champions were held well by Belenenses, despite a dominant performance.

Most recently, Petit's side played out a stalemate with Primeira Liga basement side Famalicao, in a game in which the Portuguese manager will feel that his side should have picked up all three points, after a dominant display.

However, he will definitely be pleased with the progression they have shown in recent weeks, moving up out of the relegation spots, although they are still within touching distance of the league's bottom three.

Despite a weak attack, with no side scoring as few as their nine goals this campaign, O Belem have shown themselves to be a strong defensive outfit, with only league leaders Sporting Lisbon conceding fewer than the 15 goals they have shipped from 19 league games this season.

Petit will be hoping that his side can build on that good defensive record in order to improve on the three wins they have managed so far this campaign, as a few more goals could see them move well clear of the drop zone thanks to their secure foundations.

However, they take on a Nacional side who will be looking to spoil that defensive record as they aim to get back to winning ways following a disappointing 3-2 home defeat to Farense, who sat at the foot of the table at the time.

Belenenses' Miguel Cardoso celebrates scoring their first goal with Afonso Gamelas in December 2020© Reuters

Os Alvinegros trailed 2-0 until goals from Joao Vigario and substitute Pedro Mendes levelled the game in the second half.

But it was Mendes who had the final impact when he turned the ball into his own net soon after his goal and with five minutes to go, condemning his side to a disappointing 3-2 defeat.

That loss put an end to a four-game unbeaten run in league action for Nacional, with Luis Freire's side picking up eight points from a possible 12 in that time.

The side from Madeira secured one-goal victories over the league's bottom two sides, Boavista and Famalicao, while they also held Benfica to a 1-1 draw, with Bryan Rochez equalising for Freire's side in the second half.

After getting Nacional promoted from the second tier in his first season at the club, 35-year-old Freire will be hoping to return to winning ways here, as his side look to continue their impressive return to the top flight this season.

Belenenses Primeira Liga form: LWLDDD
Belenenses form (all competitions): WLLDDD

Nacional Primeira Liga form: LDWDWL


Team News

Belenenses have no new injury issues to deal with here, with only Nilton Varela, Chima Akas and Eduardo Kau remaining out of contention due to long-term injuries.

They will be largely reliant on Mateo Cassierra to lead the line, with the Colombian's three league goals remaining more than any other player in the squad.

He will be supported by Miguel Cardoso, who has chipped in with two goals and an assist in the Primeira Liga this season.

Nacional should have a full squad to pick from for this game, after attacker Brayan Riascos returned to fitness, coming off the bench in the defeat to Farense.

He will have competition for his spot, with Bryan Rochez recording two goals and an assist in his last five matches.

Pedro Mendes will also be battling for his first start for Nacional since arriving on loan from Sporting Lisbon in January, having scored off the bench last time out.

Similarly, winger Marco Matias will be hoping for a first start on Saturday, after he arrived at the Madeira Stadium on a free transfer in January.

Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Esgaio, Henrique, Ribeiro; Calila, Sithole, Phete, Lima; Cardoso, Cassierra, Varela

Nacional possible starting lineup:
Piscitelli; De Souza, Henrique, Correia, Vigario; Borges; Thill, Ramos, Camacho; Mendes, Rochez


SM words green background

We say: Belenenses 0-1 Nacional

As is common with Belenenses, we see this being a game of few goals, and we think the visitors have enough to edge it narrowly, thanks to their stronger attacking quality.

While Belenenses have been very resilient defensively this season, we expect Nacional to find a way through, while the hosts' attack does not pose much of a threat to Freire's side.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.54%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (11.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Belenenses vs Nacional

Belenenses
30.0%
Draw
30.0%
Nacional
40.0%
10
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon15121243103337
2Porto1512123692737
3Benfica1411213482635
4Braga1584327161128
5Santa ClaraSanta Clara159061615127
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes146441814422
7Casa Pia155551618-220
8MoreirenseMoreirense156271922-320
9FamalicaoFamalicao154741817119
10Gil Vicente154561724-717
11Rio AveRio Ave144461525-1016
12Estoril PraiaEstoril143561221-914
13AVS152761122-1113
14BoavistaBoavista152671019-912
15Nacional14338819-1112
16Estrela Amadora143381224-1212
17SC FarenseFarense15339921-1212
18AroucaArouca153210926-1711


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