Bahia will look to give their survival hopes a much-needed boost on Sunday, when they play host to Cuiaba.
With six games left to play, the hosts sit 17th in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table, three points adrift of safety, while their visitors are six points better off in 12th place.
Match preview
In the first half of the domestic season, relegation did not seem a realistic threat for Bahia, who sat in the top half of the Brazilian top flight after 15 games, but a poor run has seen them quickly drop into a battle for survival. A run of 14 games producing just seven points between July and August caused a drop into the relegation zone, but the Bahiaco did manage to correct their form in style. Their next seven league matches produced three wins and four draws to climb back out of the bottom three, but in line with their fluctuation over the term, results have since taken another dip in recent weeks. Guto Ferreira's side now head into Sunday on the back of consecutive defeats, having firstly been thrashed 3-0 by title-chasing Flamengo, before Paulinho netted the only goal in a crucial clash for fellow strugglers Sport Recife last time out. That left Bahia three points adrift of safety, and, with just six games to bridge the gap, they will be desperate for a win on home turf. Cuiaba arrive on the back of a crucial victory in their own survival bid, leaving them in a strong position heading into the final straight. Following a disappointing draw with basement side Chapecoense and consecutive defeats to Ceara and Corinthians, Sunday's visitors sat worryingly close to the relegation zone, leading Bahia by just three points. They then met Internacional on home turf, and Elton netted the only goal of the game from the penalty spot to seal their ninth - and arguably most important - win of the campaign. As a result, Jorginho's men now sit 12th and would earn entry into the Copa Sudamericana if the table stays the same, but they will be wary of a defeat pulling them back within three points of the bottom four and will know that their work to avoid the drop is not finished yet.Bahia Brasileiro form:
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
Cuiaba Brasileiro form:
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
Team News
Bahia will be without goalkeeper Matheus Teixeira, who continues a spell on the sidelines through injury. They will also be missing crucial striker Gilberto, who has netted 12 league goals this season, as he will serve a suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards. However, they will be boosted by the returns of Matheus Bahia and Rossi, after both served suspensions last time out for red cards shown in the defeat to Flamengo. Cuiaba will be missing Auremir through injury and important winger Clayson, who was shown his sixth yellow card of the season last time out and will be suspended as a result. After an impressive clean sheet last time out, Jorginho should again deploy the back four of Joao Lucas, Paulao, Alan Empereur and Uendel. Bahia possible starting lineup: Fernandes; Paraiba, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Edson, Daniel; Nascimento, Mugni, Capixaba; Rodallega Cuiaba possible starting lineup: Walter; Lucas, Empereur, Paulao, Uendel; Camilo, Pepe, Gava; Max, Jenison, MarquesWe said: Bahia 1-1 Cuiaba
While Bahia are in a slump and the visitors will be boosted by a win last time out, the hosts will know they need a result on Sunday, and we back them to stand strong for a point. It is victories that Ferreira's men need, but they may have to settle for a share of the spoils when Cuiaba arrive. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 56.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 19.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bahia | Draw | Cuiaba |
| 56.97% | 23.95% | 19.09% |
| Both teams to score 47.42% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
