Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sport Recife win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sport Recife win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sport Recife in this match.