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Champions League header

Champions League
Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 7, 2022 at 8pm UK
Vicente Calderon Stadium
Porto

Atletico
2 - 1
Porto

Hermoso (90+1'), Griezmann (90+11')
Koke (56'), Hermoso (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Uribe (90+6' pen.)
Pepe (54'), Uribe (68'), Taremi (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

Last Six:
Last Game: Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico
Saturday, September 3 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Porto

Last Six:
Last Game: Gil Vicente 0-2 Porto
Saturday, September 3 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Porto

 Both of these sides will fancy their chances of winning on Wednesday night, but it is very difficult to back Atletico to lose at Wanda Metropolitano in any game against any opposition. It would not be a surprise to see a home victory, but we have a feeling that Porto could pick up a welcome point here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawPorto
34.44% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08) 26.31% (-0.004999999999999 -0) 39.25% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Both teams to score 52.99% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.33% (0.007000000000005 0.01)51.67% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.55% (0.004999999999999 0)73.45% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.41% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)28.59% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.61% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)64.39% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.2% (0.043999999999997 0.04)25.8% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.25% (0.061 0.06)60.75% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 34.44%
    Porto 39.25%
    Draw 26.31%
Atletico MadridDrawPorto
1-0 @ 9.24% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.83% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.78% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.27% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.41% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.22% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.02% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 34.44%
1-1 @ 12.51%
0-0 @ 7.38% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
2-2 @ 5.31% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.31%
0-1 @ 9.99% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.77% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.83% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.06% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.4% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.3% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 1.04% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 39.25%

How you voted: Atletico vs Porto

Atletico Madrid
60.8%
Draw
25.0%
Porto
14.2%
352
Head to Head
Dec 7, 2021 8pm
Group B
Porto
1-3
Atletico
Oliveira (90+6' pen.)
Taremi (32'), Otavio (67'), Pepe (69')
Wendell (70'), Marchesin (75')
Griezmann (56'), Correa (90'), De Paul (90+2')
Correa (67')
Carrasco (67')
Sep 15, 2021 8pm
Group B
Atletico
0-0
Porto

Felix (51'), Kondogbia (52'), Felipe (71')

Diaz (16'), Sanusi (21'), Uribe (41'), Vitinha (67'), Corona (76'), Wendell (83')
Mbemba (90+5')
Dec 11, 2013 7.45pm
Group G
Atletico
2-0
Porto
> Match Report
Oct 1, 2013 7.45pm
Group G
Porto
1-2
Atletico
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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