Cuiaba and Gremio square off on Sunday, as both sides go in search of their first win of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A campaign.
From their opening three games, the hosts have picked up two points, while their visitors have lost all three matches, sitting at the foot of the table as a result.
Match preview
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Cuiaba picked up their second point of the season last time out, as they played out a goalless draw away from home against America Mineiro.
Despite being dominated for the majority of the encounter, with the hosts squandering plenty of chances to take the lead, the Dourado managed to stand strong and return with a point.
Before that, they kicked the season off with a 2-2 draw against Juventude, as Elton equalised late on, followed by a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Fluminense.
In that game, Cuiaba were not able to come back after Gabriel Teixeira netted the only goal of the game on the stroke of half time.
Having had a fairly underwhelming start to the campaign, the Dourado currently sit in 15th spot in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table, although they could quickly rise up with all of the sides up to 10th spot only two points better off.
They will go in search of their first win of the season on Sunday to quickly overtake some of those teams, although they take on a Gremio side who are also in desperate need of a win.
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Gremio come into this game having lost all three of their league games so far this season, starting with a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Ceara.
They looked set to see out a 2-2 draw as Vanderson and Ricardinho netted goals to level the game after going two goals behind, but a 94th-minute winner from Jorginho sent them home empty-handed.
The Immortal Tricolor were then defeated 1-0 at home to Athletico Paranaense, as Matheus Babi netted the only goal of the game on the stroke of half time.
Most recently, they were again defeated by one goal as Sander fired Sport Recife to a 1-0 home win.
Having lifted the national trophy twice in their history, while achieving a top-six finish in each of the last four seasons, this start to the campaign is certainly uncharacteristic for Gremio, who will be desperate for a win to put an end to their poor run.
They will hope that a positive result on Sunday will inspire a turn of form to see them quickly move up the table.
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Team News
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Cuiaba will be without winger Felipe Marques, who continues his spell out of action after testing positive for COVID-19.
Their line will be led by experienced forward Elton, who has netted one of their two league goals so far this season, equalising late in the Juventude draw.
Jonathan Cafu will also form part of the front three, having opened the scoring in that 2-2 draw.
At the other end of the pitch, Marllon and Anderson Conceicao should partner up at the heart of the back four after a clean sheet last time out.
As for Gremio, forward Ricardinho will be hoping for a return to the starting XI after he was dropped to the bench recently, despite netting nine goals in his last 18 games.
Goalkeeper Brenno is expected to remain out through injury, while Diego Churin and Alisson are also sidelined.
Meanwhile, the talented pair of Thiago dos Santos and Matheus Henrique should continue to sit in front of the back four, giving Jean Pyerre the freedom to support the front three.
Blockbuster loan signing Douglas Costa featured off the bench last time out after a spell out of action, and he could play a key role if deemed fit, having had a successful career with the likes of Bayern Munich and Juventus.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Ramon, Marllon, Conceicao, Uendel; Camilo, Pepe, Gava; Cafu, Elton, Clayson
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Victor; Rafinha, Geromel, Kannemann, Cortez; Henrique, Dos Santos; Costa, Pyerre, Chu; Ricardinho
We say: Cuiaba 1-1 Gremio
With both sides having had underwhelming starts to the season, this could go either way, but we see the teams sharing the points.
If Gremio manage to click, they should not be stranded at the bottom of the table for long, and we see them improving and collecting their first point of the season on Sunday.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 40.87%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Gremio in this match.
