Cuiaba will be looking to claim their second successive Brasileiro victory when they host relegation-threatened Gremio on Wednesday evening.
The Dourado have won only two league matches on home soil so far this campaign, while the visitors have lost six of their seven games on the road.
Match preview
© Reuters
Cuiaba claimed just their third league win of the campaign when they beat Athletico Paranaense 1-0 on home soil last weekend.
Clayson's first goal of the season in the 61st minute was enough to secure all three points for the Dourado, which has moved them out of the relegation zone, two points clear of Sport Recife in 17th place with a game in hand.
Head coach Jorginho, who replaced Alberto Valentimin at the helm in July, has claimed 13 points from his nine games in charge and has led his side to four successive home games without defeat.
Their next Brasileiro encounter is at the Arena Pantanal against a struggling Gremio outfit, who they lost against on both occasions last season.
After securing promotion to the Brazilian top-flight for the first time in their history in 2019-20, Cuiaba finished 15th last season. This year, they are set to endure another relegation battle, but claiming all three points against teams below them such as Gremio will be vital if they are to avoid the drop.
© Reuters
Gremio were unable to build on their 2-1 victory against basement club Chapecoense last week, as they were beaten 2-1 away at Sao Paulo on Sunday.
A 93rd-minutes winner from Igor Gomes condemned the Immortal Tricolor to their eighth Brasileiro defeat - only Chapecoense have lost more so far this season.
Luis Felipe Scolari's men remain in 19th place, but the gap to safety has now increased to seven points as they look to chase down Wednesday's opponents Cuiaba, who sit just outside the bottom four.
Gremio can take confidence into their midweek fixture after beating Cuiaba twice last season, winning 2-1 on the road in November 2020 before securing a 2-0 home victory in the same month.
Scolari's challenge of escaping the relegation zone has got tougher, but securing all three points on Wednesday should provide them with a much-needed boost going forward.
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Cuiaba forward Caio Mota remains unavailable as he recovers from a broken foot, while striker Felipe Marques is back from serving a one-match suspension and will be in contention to play up front on Wednesday.
Jorginho is unlikely to make too many changes to the side that won last weekend, though midfielder Uillian Correia could be brought back into the starting lineup at the expense of Auremir.
As for Gremio, midfielder Maicon and full-back Rafinha have returned from injury, while goalkeeper Brenno is also available after winning a goal medal with Brazil at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.
The visitors are, however, still without the services of experienced forward Diego Souza, who continues to recover from a thigh problem, so Miguel Borja is set to lead the line once again in his absence.
Scolari is also not expected to make many changes to his first XI, which could see Douglas Costa, Jean Pyerre and Alisson all keep their places in attacking midfield roles.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Lucas, Marllon, Paulao, Uendel; Gomes, Gava, Correia, Clayton; Pepe; Jenison
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Geromel, Tressoldi, Cortez; Mendes, Santos; Costa, Pyerre, Alisson; Borja
We say: Cuiaba 2-1 Gremio
Both Cuiaba and Gremio have struggled for consistency so far this campaign and need to put together a good run of form to help steer them clear of the relegation zone.
The hosts have drawn eight times in the Brasileiro so far this season - only Ceara have drawn as many - but we feel that they may just do enough to claim all three points on Wednesday.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 40.87%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Gremio in this match.
