Canada have an opportunity to end this World Cup 2022 qualifying window with a 100% record if they can beat El Salvador on Wednesday at Estadio Cuscatlan.
Both sides won their previous match by a 2-0 score, as the Canadians sit on top of the Octagon standings with 22 points, while La Selecta have their work cut out for them when it comes to making it to Qatar, trailing Mexico and the USA by nine points for one of those coveted top three spots.
Match preview
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Sitting back and waiting for the right time to strike has been the mantra for Hugo Perez and his Salvadorian squad in this round of CONCACAF qualifying, and they did that effectively over the weekend, scoring on two of their three efforts on target.
While this team have been sharp and compact on the defensive end, on Sunday they showed some offensive upside, scoring multiple goals in a game for the first time since their elimination from the Gold Cup in July of last year, when El Salvador fired two past Qatar in a 3-2 defeat.
They have been an intimidating squad to play against throughout this qualifying campaign, throwing in some bone-crunching tackles and not afraid to give away their share of free kicks.
El Salvador have left several points on the table in the Octagon, which at the end of the day could cost them a place in the World Cup, squandering six points from winning positions.
Their victory over the weekend ended a four-match losing run in this qualifying campaign, and later this week, they will hope to snap a five-game home losing streak in all competitions.
They have played the Canadians tough in San Salvador, conceding only once against them in their previous two matchups dating back to 1997.
This group have lacked consistency in the Octagonal phase, failing to win consecutive matches thus far, while being shut out in six of their 10 qualifiers.
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At the moment, Canada look unstoppable, winning their fifth successive encounter on Sunday, as they hold a four-point cushion atop the standings.
So far in 2022 qualifying, Les Rouges have faced their past demons head-on and conquered them at every turn, defeating Haiti in the second round of qualifying, winning in Honduras for the first time since 1985 and most recently ending an extended drought versus the United States, beating them in a qualifying fixture for the first time in 42 years.
While not quite as long as that streak, The Canucks can terminate another lengthy winless run on Wednesday, having failed to claim a victory in El Salvador since 1996.
Some unforeseen circumstances left their qualifying hopes in doubt at the beginning of this window, but manager John Herdman has consistently got his tactics right, despite not having Alphonso Davies or Stephen Eustaquio to count upon in their previous two matches.
After conceding first in four of their opening six fixtures in this qualification stage, they have come out much more determined in the first 45 minutes, taking the lead with fewer than 10 minutes on the clock in each of their last two games.
A World Cup fantasy is looking more and more like a reality for The Canucks, who currently lead Panama by five points for a top-three position and a place in Qatar.
Canada seem to be happy allowing their opponents a lot of possession, having the ball no more than 41% of the time in each of their previous three qualifiers, while their speed and reaction time in transition has been lethal.
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Team News
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Nelson Bonilla notched the winner for El Salvador this past weekend, his first for the national team since 2019, while Darwin Ceren tallied for the fifth time in his international career.
Perez made four changes to his starting 11 this weekend inserting Ronald Gomez, Eriq Zavaleta, Narciso Orellana and Nelson Bonilla in place of Roberto Dominguez, Darwin Ceren, Jairo Henriquez and Alex Roldan.
Bryan Landaverde, who has arguably been their best midfielder in this campaign, will not be available for this match, as the 26-year-old collected another caution on Sunday.
The status of Eustaquio remains up in the air for the Canadian national team on Wednesday after his positive COVID test just over a week ago, while Davies will not be back until at least March due to his heart condition and Samuel Piette might not be available either after sustaining an injury late in the first half against Honduras
After collecting another yellow card, Steven Vitoria will be suspended for this encounter, while defender Sam Adekugbe scored his first international goal in injury time against the US.
Cyle Larin is now the most prolific goalscorer in Canadian history, moving past Dwayne De Rosario with his 23rd strike on Sunday, combining brilliantly with Jonathan David throughout the game, Milan Borjan collected his second successive clean sheet, while the defensive trio of Vitoria, Kamal Miller and Alistair Johnston combined for 12 clearances, nine recoveries, three blocks and four interceptions versus the Yanks.
El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; A. Larin, Dominguez, Zavaleta, Vigil; Roldan, Tamacas, Ceren; Henriquez, Rivas, Bonilla
Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Johnston, Miller, Adekugbe; Laryea, Hutchinson, Fraser, Buchanan; Osorio; David, Larin
We say: El Salvador 0-2 Canada
Canada have been slaying their past dragons time and again in this qualifying campaign, and given their depth in the final third, not to mention a goalkeeper at the top of his game, we expect to see them triumph for a sixth successive encounter.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 40.92%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 29.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.26%) and 1-2 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.34%), while for a El Salvador win it was 1-0 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Canada in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Canada.
