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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.84%) and 0-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for an Almere City win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
Result | ||
Almere City | Draw | Willem II |
19% ( 1.39) | 21.42% ( 0.31) | 59.58% ( -1.7) |
Both teams to score 55.18% ( 1.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.71% ( 0.84) | 42.29% ( -0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.3% ( 0.83) | 64.69% ( -0.84) |
Almere City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.03% ( 2.04) | 35.96% ( -2.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.25% ( 2.03) | 72.74% ( -2.03) |
Willem II Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.17% ( -0.25) | 13.83% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.82% ( -0.49) | 41.18% ( 0.49) |
Score Analysis |
Almere City | Draw | Willem II |
2-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.32) 1-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.68% Total : 19% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.42% | 1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.46) 0-2 @ 9.73% ( -0.55) 1-3 @ 6.57% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 6.42% ( -0.43) 2-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.15) 1-4 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 3.18% ( -0.24) 2-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.29% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.26% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.08% Total : 59.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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