We said: Rennes 2-1 Panathinaikos
Rennes have struggled to live up to the standards they set last season, but Genesio's men are still in a brilliant position to qualify into the knockout stages of the Europa League.
Panathinaikos have enjoyed an impressive run of results domestically, but we feel the Greek Super League leaders will be slightly outclassed at Roazhon Park on Thursday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Panathinaikos had a probability of 29.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Panathinaikos win was 0-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.