Fortaleza will look to remain unbeaten at Arena Castelao when they host Chapecoense in Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A action on Wednesday.
The team from Ceara are winless in their last four league fixtures, while Verdao remain winless in Serie A after seven games played and are currently in the relegation zone with just four points.
Match preview
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After a hot start to the league campaign, Leo do Pici have hit a roadblock recently, winning their opening three Serie A fixtures and sitting on top of the table until their sixth match when they were beaten 2-1 by the reigning Brasileiro champions Flamengo.
Over the weekend, Juan Pablo Vojvoda's side failed to capitalize after Gremio were reduced to 10 men, as they were held to only 43% possession, drawing 0-0 against a side who are bottom of the table.
Losing another two points dropped them from third to fourth in the standings, and they will hope that they can stop backsliding against a side they have never lost to in the Brazilian Serie A in Chapecoense.
Scoring goals seems to come easily for this team when they are at home, finding the mark seven times in their opening three matches, although five of their tallies came in their game with Internacional.
After narrowly escaping relegation on goal difference in their last campaign, they do not want to waste another opportunity to move up the table.
Three of their next four league games are being played against sides in the bottom half of the league standings.
They have fought valiantly over their previous five league fixtures, but Chapecoense still have yet to register a victory in their first season in the Brazilian top flight since 2019.
Jair Ventura will hope that his team can ride the momentum of their weekend draw against one of the top sides in Brazil at the moment in Atletico Paranaense, as Verdao scored in the 94th minute to salvage a 2-2 draw.
That should serve as a huge confidence boost to this side given the fact that they have struggled against teams near the top of the table, losing 3-0 to league leaders Red Bull Bragantino and then 3-1 to Palmeiras.
They seem to be playing better on the road, with three consecutive draws since that defeat to Palmeiras, and they have been strong defensively in those matches, holding their opponents to three shots or less on target twice and only allowing five shots on target against The Red and Blacks this past weekend.
This team may be in danger of relegation through the early portion of this campaign, but all it takes is one win, and everything can change as they are only in their current position on goal difference, and after Wednesday, three of their next four league matches will be at home.
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Team News
Fortaleza could be without a few players due to injury on Wednesday, including Matheus Jussa, who has a shoulder injury, Gustavo Blanco has a thigh problem, and Jackson has a knee injury, while Isaque will hope to return after missing the last match because of a positive COVID-19 test.
Goalkeeper Felipe Alves has been splendid over his last three matches, making 13 saves in that time and picking up two clean sheets, as he is currently in second in that department with three.
Yago Pikachu is tied for second in the league in goals with three but has not scored since their second match of the season, a 5-1 triumph over Internacional.
As for Chapecoense, left-winger Kaio will likely miss again due to inflammation in his biceps, and goalkeeper Vagner has a ruptured knee ligament.
Moises Ribeiro returned to the lineup from injury last weekend and played the entire match in midfield, though his teammates Joilson, Tiepo, Busanello and Leo Gomes could all be missing again on Wednesday with injuries.
Half of the goals scored (three of six) in the Brazilian league so far by Chape have come from defenders, with Derlan, Ignacio and Busanello finding the back of the net.
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Alves; Titi, Quintero, Guedes; Crispim, Carlinhos, Felipe, Melo, Vargas; Robson, Torres
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Ribeiro Sovinski; Derlan, Solda, Ezequiel; Gebing, Lima, Ravanelli, Ronei; Perotti, Geuvanio, Fernandinho
We say: Fortaleza 2-1 Chapecoense
After a couple of slip-ups, Fortaleza know they have some winnable games upcoming, which could move them back into the top spot, and they will not want to waste what should be an excellent opportunity to get the ball rolling on Wednesday.
Chapecoense have shown the ability to keep a match tight but have yet to prove they can find a way to win or create many quality scoring opportunities.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 52.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
