At risk of suffering an unwanted first in the Champions League, Juventus host PSV Eindhoven in the first leg of their playoff battle on Tuesday evening.
Despite being one of the best-performing defensive sides in the league phase, Thiago Motta's men could only place 20th, while their Dutch opponents safely sealed a knockout berth in 14th spot.
Match preview
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Carrying on the pragmatic legacy of Massimiliano Allegri - whether intentional or not - Juve boss Motta witnessed the Old Lady ship just seven goals in their eight league phase matches, the second-best defensive record of all teams who failed to directly qualify for the last 16.
However, Juve only managed to find the back of the net nine times themselves - the joint-second worst record of the top-24 teams - and the Bianconeri's 2-0 win over Manchester City on December 11 is their only victory from their last six in the Champions League.
A 2-0 defeat to Benfica on the final matchday proved inconsequential, but having also been beaten by Stuttgart on their own patch, Juventus could now lose three home games in a single Champions League campaign for the first time in their history.
Since going down to the Portuguese giants, though, Juventus have belatedly started turning draws into wins in Serie A, easing past Empoli 4-1 on February 2 before edging out Como 2-1 on Friday thanks to their new French hero.
Paris Saint-Germain loanee Randal Kolo Muani bagged his fourth and fifth goals for his new club - including an 89th-minute winner - against Cesc Fabregas's side, and victory for Juve on Tuesday would see them win three games on the trot for the first time all season.
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Upcoming visitors PSV Eindhoven were not mathematically out of contention for the top-eight spots heading into the final matchday, where Peter Bosz's men faced the most daunting home contest on the menu against a hitherto perfect Liverpool side.
With the Reds' qualification already sealed, though, Arne Slot rang the changes for his Netherlands homecoming, much to the delight of the Eindhoven faithful as PSV ended Liverpool's 100% record in the 2024-25 competition with an absorbing 3-2 success.
While the Dutch titans did everything in their power to crack the top eight on the last matchday, it would have taken a ridiculous set of results to go their way for that scenario to have materialised, and Tuesday's visitors unsurprisingly wound up in one of the eight seeded playoff positions.
However, PSV might have more pressing matters at hand than a fanciful run to Champions League glory, as Saturday's disappointing 1-1 draw with Willem II means that Bosz's men will be usurped by a resurgent Ajax at the top of the Eredivisie table if the Amsterdam giants win both of their games in hand.
Looking on the brighter side, that stalemate at least stretched PSV's unbeaten run to six matches and their scoring streak to 11 games in all competitions, but they have already been conquered once by Juve this term, succumbing to a 3-1 league-phase loss in their first-ever major European meeting.
Team News
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Injured in the first half of Juve's home defeat to Benfica last time out in the Champions League, defender Pierre Kalulu is yet to return from that muscular problem and is one of five concerns for Motta to manage ahead of the first leg.
ACL victims Bremer and Juan Cabal remain sidelined, while striker Arkadiusz Milik is not expected back from a calf issue until next month, and defender Andrea Cambiaso - whose agent has confirmed was the subject of interest from Manchester City in January - is nursing an ankle problem.
Friday's win over Como saw Newcastle United loanee Lloyd Kelly make his Juve debut as a half-time substitute for Nicolo Savona, but Motta should stick with the latter from the first whistle in Europe.
As for PSV, Bosz may find himself in a defensive quandary after Adamo Nagalo was taken off injured in the weekend's draw with Willem II, an untimely blow with Olivier Boscagli also nursing a muscular problem.
However, Ryan Flamingo is back from a Champions League ban and can slot into the heart of defence alongside Armando Obispo if need be, while Manchester United-owned Tyrell Malacia was immediately drafted into the first XI against Willem II but may now make way for Mauro Junior.
Malik Tillman (ankle), Ricardo Pepi (knee) and Richard Ledezma (head) are also missing for the Rood-Witten, who are skippered by evergreen 34-year-old striker Luuk de Jong, already on 14 goals for the season in all tournaments.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Di Gregorio; Weah, Gatti, Veiga, Savona; McKennie, Locatelli; Gonzalez, Koopmeiners, Yildiz; Kolo Muani
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Benitez; Karsdorp, Flamingo, Obispo, Junior; Veerman, Schouten; Bakayoko, Til, Lang; De Jong
We say: Juventus 2-1 PSV Eindhoven
With Kolo Muani firing on all cylinders up front, stalemate specialists Juventus are finally converting draws into victories and have already out-witted PSV on one occasion in this season's Champions League.
The Dutch outfit can always be backed to make at least one of their forward forays count, but Motta's men still have our vote to take a slender advantage to Eindhoven for the second leg.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
