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Walsall
Swindon Town
League Two | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
County Ground
Morecambe

Swindon
3 - 3
Morecambe

Austin (5', 35'), Kokolo (74')
McCarthy (46')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Adams (15'), Fairclough (21'), Smith (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Swindon Town and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Swindon
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 1-2 Forest Green
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Swindon Town 1-1 Morecambe

It has been a disappointing campaign for both teams, with each likely looking forward to the season drawing to a close this weekend. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see them battle it out to a draw, particularly due to the poor form Swindon and Morecambe have coming into this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.38%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
53.38% (0.034000000000006 0.03) 21.89% (0.0019999999999989 0) 24.72% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.98% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.84% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)37.15% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.64% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)59.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)14.04% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.4% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)41.6% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.11% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)27.89% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.49% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)63.5% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Swindon Town 53.38%
    Morecambe 24.72%
    Draw 21.89%
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 7.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.31% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 3.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.42% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.22%
5-0 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 53.38%
1-1 @ 9.82% (0.004999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 5% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 24.72%

How you voted: Swindon vs Morecambe

Swindon Town
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Morecambe
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Morecambe
2-2
Swindon
Taylor (31'), Walker (80')
Connolly (33'), Songo'o (54')
Songo'o (55')
Kemp (12'), Austin (57' pen.)
Khan (78'), Kemp (90+5')
Apr 13, 2020 3pm
Aug 31, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 6
Swindon
3-1
Morecambe
Doyle (5', 21'), Yates (17')
Mar 23, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 39
Swindon
4-0
Morecambe
Robinson (10'), Woolery (42'), Conroy (66'), Bennett (81')
Bennett (80')

Kenyon (36')
Sep 8, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 7
Morecambe
0-1
Swindon

Old (78')
Adebayo (26')
McCourt (78')
Knoyle (35')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall20134337191843
2Port Vale2110742619737
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster2110653124736
4Crewe AlexandraCrewe209832416835
5Chesterfield2197536231334
6AFC Wimbledon20103731171433
7Notts County208752821731
8Grimsby Town21101102833-531
9MK Dons199373326730
10Gillingham209382218430
11Salford City208662219330
12Bradford CityBradford207762422228
13Bromley206952523227
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham217682930-127
15BarrowBarrow207582018226
16Newport CountyNewport207582731-426
17Colchester UnitedColchester2041152322123
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood195862425-123
19Tranmere RoversTranmere205691529-1421
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2163121732-1521
21Swindon TownSwindon2147102635-919
22Accrington StanleyAccrington204792636-1019
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2036111532-1715
24Morecambe2135131938-1914


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