Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 48.22%. A win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 28.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Vancouver Whitecaps win was 2-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
