Following an emphatic victory a week ago, New York City FC host one of the hottest teams in Major League Soccer in Toronto on Sunday at Citi Field.
The reigning MLS Cup champions tied a club record for the largest victory in franchise history, defeating Real Salt Lake 6-0, while TFC are unbeaten in four straight contests, handing the Philadelphia Union their first defeat of the campaign, 2-1.
Match preview
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It has been a frustrating season in MLS for the Pigeons, who took all of that disappointment out on RSL, scoring more goals in that one game (six) than they had all year prior to that contest (five).
New York have the talent and character to repeat as champions, and those characteristics showed up in a big way last Sunday.
What has to be frightening for the rest of the league is that manager Ronny Deila said that triumph was not their best performance of the year, making you wonder how much better they can be.
When you look at their performance versus RSL and the chances they created in their CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) draw (1-1) versus the Seattle Sounders before, it is clear that they have more cohesion and fluidity when in possession.
The quality and depth within this side is impressive, and we are starting to see some youngsters step in and play a significant role within this group.
NYCFC have shown plenty of quality in the final third when playing at home, with 10 of their 11 goals this season coming in New York.
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Life in Toronto for Bob Bradley could not be much better, as the former American manager has the Reds in fifth place in the Eastern Conference.
These youngsters are quickly learning what it takes to compete as they have surprised many people with their recent form.
Even though we did not see much creativity or dangerous opportunities from them against the Union, TFC were able to win thanks to some fine individual performances.
Another point on Sunday would match their longest unbeaten run from a year ago and could put them as high as second in the Eastern Conference, depending on the other results.
In recent weeks, Toronto have shown that they can be a scrappy side to face, trailing three times in their previous two games yet still finding a way to earn four points.
According to Bradley, the weight of their passes and first touches have not been consistent, and that will need to be much better if they are to maintain their strong form against a New York side brimming with confidence, who rarely lose possession.
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Team News
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It only took one game for last season's Golden Boot winner to climb back into the race for top goalscorer this year, as Valentin Castellanos notched four goals for New York versus Salt Lake, his first four of the campaign, while Thiago Andrade picked up a brace, his second and third of the year.
Anton Tinnerholm remains out with an Achilles issue, Maxi Moralez has a problem with his hip and Maxime Chanot is dealing with an upper-body injury.
Sean Johnson collected his second clean sheet of the campaign, stopping five RSL shots as he looks to earn a place on the US Men's national team for the upcoming World Cup.
Toronto striker Jesus Jimenez picked up his fourth goal for TFC last weekend, while Alejandro Pozuelo notched the winner, his second of 2022.
The club will be closely monitoring the health of midfielder Jonathan Osorio, who was taken off early in the second half versus Philly with an apparent leg injury, Ayo Akinola is still questionable because of an ACL injury, while Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, Ralph Priso and Noble Okello are all suffering lower body problems.
Alex Bono stopped four of the five shots that the Union fired at him last Saturday, while Kadin Chung notched his first career MLS assist and Carlos Salcedo missed that game through suspension.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Gray, Latinovich, Callens, Amundsen; Parks, Morales; Andrade, Rodriguez, Martins; Castellanos
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; MacNaughton, O'Neill, Mavinga, Shaffelburg; Osorio, Bradley; Thompson, Pozuelo, Petrasso; Jimenez
We say: New York City FC 2-2 Toronto
Both of these sides seem to have found their footing at long last, and although New York might have the edge in experience and offensive depth, TFC have proven to be a much more resilient bunch than we saw in 2021.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 74.05%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 10.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 3-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Toronto win it was 1-2 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
