Philadelphia Union's playoff position is far from secured with seven Major League Soccer games still to play, despite Jim Curtin's side sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference, they are only three points clear of the chasing pack.
FC Cincinnati are competing for pride now after a season of struggle, and they will be hopeful of lifting themselves off the bottom of the table as they have a game in hand on Toronto, who are directly above them in 13th spot.
Match preview
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New Cincinnati boss Tyrone Marshall has experienced a difficult start with Jaap Stam's former side, losing his first two games at the helm in Ohio.
Marshall's team had only won once in their last 16 games prior to his arrival, but that has now been extended to one victory in their last 18, after falling to a 1-0 defeat last time out against New York Red Bulls.
Cincinnati dominated the ball in that game, but they failed to create many good opportunities in front of goal with all of the possession which they claimed, eventually allowing Andrew Gutman to seal the three points for the Red Bulls with a strike in the 73rd minute.
Only conceding once in their last outing could be seen as a step in the right direction for Marshall, considering that the team had conceded 13 goals in four games prior to their clash against New York Red Bulls, and with not much of this season left, the new manager will be looking to build for the next campaign.
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The visitors' form has picked back up in recent weeks, after suffering disappointment in the CONCACAF Champions League - Union have won three of their last four MLS games, remaining unbeaten in that period.
Curtin's side enjoyed their last outing at Subaru Park where they welcomed Columbus Crew, and goals from Jack Elliott, Alejandro Bedoya and Leon Flach sealed a 3-0 win, despite the home side having to play the majority of the second half with 10 players after Kai Wagner was shown his second yellow card.
Union will take a lot of confidence from their recent form, and another clean sheet on Sunday ensured that they still have the joint best defensive stats in the Eastern Conference, which has been a major factor contributing to their current third-place position as they are the lowest scorers in the top seven.
The fight for a playoff position in the Eastern Conference is likely to go down to the final day, with only three points separating third place to eighth, but Philadelphia should secure a top-seven finish with the form that they are in and three points on Sunday is crucial, taking into account Cincinnati's form and league position.
Curtin's side have only lost once against a team which is currently outside the playoff positions, and that came in April against Inter Miami, making the home side resounding favourites for Sunday's fixture.
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Team News
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Cincinnati's Joseph-Claude Gyau and Maikel van der Werff could both make their return to action this month, but Sunday's match is likely to have come too early for the defensive duo.
Having only overseen two games so far, it is likely that Marshall is still finding what he believes to be his best starting 11, and that was demonstrated by the manager making five changes to the last lineup.
One player who did retain his place in both of the starting lineups named by Marshall was striker Brenner da Silva, who is expected to lead the line again on Sunday as he is Cincinnati's top goalscorer this season.
Philadelphia left-back Wagner will serve his one-match suspension against Cincinnati after being sent off last time out. Alvas Powell could switch from right-back to the left side for Sunday's outing.
Cory Burke, Ilsinho and Joe Bendik continue to be sidelined with injuries, but like Gyau and Van der Werff for Cincinnati, the trio could make their return to the pitch later this month.
Midfielder Jose Andres Martinez was unavailable last time out but he is expected to come back into the starting lineup, in a midfield unit with Flach and Jamiro Monteiro also.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Matarrita, Blackett, Cameron, Hagglund; Medunjanin, Stanko; Kubo, Acosta, Atanga; Silva
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Mbaizo, Glesnes, Elliott, Powell; Monteiro, Flach, Martinez; Gazdag; Santos, Przybylko
We say: FC Cincinnati 0-3 Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia are strong favourites for this clash given their better league position and current run of form, and there should be no reason why they cannot put on another dominant display.
Cincinnati will want to keep improving under new manager Marshall, but Sunday's game against Union is going to be a tough task and the visitors' quality should shine through.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.24%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
