Two local rivals aiming to recover from underwhelming starts to their Brasileiro campaigns lock horns at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira on Sunday as Santos do battle with Sao Paulo.
The hosts fell to a 1-0 defeat to high-flying Fluminense in their most recent encounter, whereas Sao Paulo's winless streak continued with a draw versus Chapecoense.
Match preview
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As he gears up to meet former side Sao Paulo, there would be no better time for Santos coach Fernando Diniz to spark an upturn in fortunes for a side who have taken just four points from 12 on offer in the top flight so far.
The eight-time Brazilian champions - who are without a top-flight title since 2004 - recently saw a four-game unbeaten run across all competitions come to an end at the hands of Fluminense, who secured a 1-0 win on Thursday thanks to a strike from former Paris Saint-Germain attacker Nene.
Two wins in the Copa do Brasil since the start of the month have provided some sort of a silver lining for Santos, but Diniz has witnessed his side struggle for form in the early stages of the league season, and the hosts head into Sunday's game languishing in 13th place in the table.
Diniz himself will be out for a measure of personal revenge after being sacked by Sao Paulo earlier this year, and this Santos outfit are notoriously strong at home - winning five and drawing one of their last six in all competitions at their headquarters.
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Fellow giants of the Brazilian game Sao Paulo have also flattered to deceive in the opening stages of the 2021 Brasileiro season, as Hernan Crespo prepares for the fifth gameweek of the campaign still searching for that elusive first three points.
Ex-Inter Milan striker Eder drew first blood against Chapecoense after just 13 minutes on Wednesday, but a red card to Rodrigo Nestor handed the visitors the opportunity to come back into the tie, and Sao Paulo were forced to settle with a 1-1 draw as Kaio's header levelled proceedings.
As one of only six sides in the division yet to win this season, Sao Paulo find themselves down in 16th in the embryonic standings, and rather embarrassingly, Eder's strike against Chapecoense was their first goal of the league season.
Furthermore, Sao Paulo make the short journey to Santos on a three-game losing streak away from home in all competitions - while they are winless on unfamiliar turf since April - but they have only lost one of their last nine meetings with this weekend's hosts.
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Team News
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Santos midfielder Jean Mota left the field through injury after 59 minutes against Fluminense, and the 27-year-old now joins the likes of Sandry, Jobson and Rafael Longuine in the treatment room.
Guilherme Camacho could be in line for a recall to the midfield if Mota's injury keeps him out of this contest, while centre-back Luan Peres should return to the rearguard after serving a suspension, but Alison is now banned for an accumulation of bookings.
Diniz will certainly ponder changes given the quick turnaround in fixtures following Thursday's defeat, as Lucas Braga and Marcos Leonardo push for starts in attack.
Sao Paulo midfielder Nestor will sit this one out through suspension after his sending off following a VAR review against Chapecoense, while two of his possible replacements in William and Luan are out with injuries.
Eighteen-year-old Talles could therefore enjoy a start in the engine room, while Eder should retain his place up top after opening his and Sao Paulo's account for the league season in midweek.
Veteran defender Dani Alves was forced to withdraw from Brazil's Copa America squad with a knee injury, although he was recently selected to play in the Tokyo Olympics.
Santos possible starting lineup:
John; Madson, Peres, Felipe, Jonatan; Balieiro, Camacho; Marinho, Pirani, Braga; Jorge
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Alves, Reinaldo, Sara; Talles, Liziero; Rigoni, Gomes, Rojas; Eder
We say: Santos 1-1 Sao Paulo
Neither of these two sides have been renowned for their attacking capabilities this season, and Santos' strong home form coupled with Sao Paulo's away day difficulties should spell a home success this weekend.
However, the hosts have struggled to get over the line against their local rivals in recent times, while suspensions and injuries will continue to bedevil both teams, so we expect a cagey affair to end with the points shared.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
