Lumen Field will be the site for a top of the table clash in MLS on Sunday as the Seattle Sounders host the Colorado Rapids.
Only three points currently separate the Burgundy Boys in third from the Western Conference leaders after both sides won comfortably in midweek.
Match preview
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As we come around the final bend of the 2021 regular season, it is clear that Brian Schmetzer and his Sounders are not ready to hand over their Western Conference crown anytime soon.
On Wednesday, the Rave Green beat the San Jose Earthquakes 3-1, winning on the road for the ninth time this year, equalling a franchise record.
Seattle are in a position to finish top of their conference for the first time since 2014, though they have been in many close races since then, ending the 2020 regular season in a three-way tie with Sporting Kansas City and the Portland Timbers on points, while coming in second to the Wizards by a margin of three points in 2018.
Their defensive shape has been exceptional at home lately, with clean sheets each of in their previous two matches in all competitions and eight in total since the beginning of this campaign.
Being successful in this league is about picking your spots and capitalising on your opponent's mistakes, and the Sounders have been able to do both effectively over their past two games, scoring on three of their five shots on target against the Quakes and putting two past KC, despite having only 35% of the possession.
With eight games remaining, two of which are against the Rapids and one versus KC, Seattle will want to be sharper heading into the playoffs than they were in 2020 when they won only three of their final eight fixtures.
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In their second-last game of July, the Rapids had perhaps their worst outing of the season, getting blanked 3-0 by Real Salt Lake in a game where they made plenty of uncharacteristic mistakes.
It is safe to say that since that match, the Burgundy Boys have turned the corner, going unbeaten in 12 consecutive games, as they are now in contention for their highest regular season finish since 2016 when they came in second, just two points back of Dallas.
A win or draw in this one would extend their unbeaten streak on the road to seven games, which would also set a new club record.
Colorado have struggled in their previous visits to the Pacific Northwest, losing their last three encounters in Seattle by a combined score of 9-0.
Robin Fraser's side ended their homestand with back-to-back clean sheets as they are the second-best defensive unit in MLS behind the Sounders, allowing only 24 goals this year.
Since they entered the league in 1996, the Rapids have never finished the regular season in first in the conference, so this is an unfamiliar position that they find themselves in, but if they can get that monkey off their back, they will have earned it, especially knowing that in their final eight games this year, they will face Seattle twice, plus the Portland Timbers and New England Revolution once, so their road to the top will not be easy.
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Team News
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Seattle will look for another big performance for Cristian Roldan, who is in good form at the moment with three goals in his last three games in all competitions, while Alex Roldan, his brother, has been instrumental as a wing back, forcing a lot of overloads to one side of the field and adding an extra dimension to the Sounders game.
Raul Ruidiaz was sparkling in attack once again on Wednesday, with a pair of goals, although his status for Sunday will be in question after being substituted in the second half versus San Jose, while Yeimar Gomez Andrade leads the league with 75 interceptions this year and striker Leo Chu made his Sounders debut on Wednesday, with the 21-year-old playing the entire second half.
Jordan Morris and Jordy Delem remain inactive with ACL problems, Nicolas Lodeiro is out after undergoing right knee surgery, Nicolas Benezet has a left hip flexor strain and Brad Smith will miss due to health and safety protocols.
Midfielder Cole Bassett has an opportunity to earn his 50th career MLS cap on Sunday, which would make him the second Rapids Academy product to reach that milestone, with the other player being their former defender Shane O'Neill, who regularly features nowadays for Seattle.
Dominique Badji has good memories of playing against the Sounders scoring two goals and adding another two assists in seven career games against them, while Andre Shinyashiki has three goals in 250 minutes across four games versus the Rave Green and goalkeeper William Yarbrough needs just one more win to reach 20 for the Burgundy Boys, which would make him the seventh keeper to achieve that feat for the club.
Collen Warner will miss this match with a yellow card suspension, and Jonathan Lewis is hoping to continue his goalscoring ways, notching his fifth of the campaign on Wednesday, tying a career-high set in each of his three seasons in Colorado and putting him two behind Michael Barrios for the team lead.
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; O'Neill, Arreaga, Tolo; A. Roldan, Bruin, Atencio, Rowe; Montero, C. Roldan; Ruidiaz
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Beitashour, Moor, Rosenberry, Trusty, Esteves; Bassett, Price, Barrios; Lewis, Kaye
We say: Seattle Sounders 1-0 Colorado Rapids
This should be a very tight matchup featuring two sides who do not allow a lot of quality scoring chances, but the Sounders have risen to the occasion time and again this year when they needed it most, and we expect them to do it again on Sunday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Seattle Sounders win with a probability of 49.82%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Seattle Sounders win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Colorado Rapids win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Seattle Sounders would win this match.
