Estoril Praia will attempt to extend their unbeaten Primeira Liga record to five matches when they face Tondela on Monday night.
While the visitors sit in fourth place in the standings, their hosts are down in 14th spot after suffering three successive defeats.
Match preview
© Reuters
When preparing for Estoril's first year back in the Portuguese top flight, Bruno Pinheiro would have been realistic about his team's chances.
However, last season's second-tier champions have taken full advantage of a favourable opening schedule, collecting 10 points from a possible 12.
Canarinhos have shown different sides to their game, starting the campaign with successive clean sheets before showcasing their battling qualities before the international break.
Even while sitting eight points clear of the bottom three, avoiding relegation and establishing themselves as a Primeira Liga club remains the main objective.
Nevertheless, eight of this squad have already chipped in with a goal or assist, a statistic which suggests that they have the quality in the final third to stay competitive at the right end of the table.
Pako Ayestaran would have felt equally confident about his Tondela squad after they posted a 3-0 triumph over Santa Clara in their opening game.
However, despite their spirited effort against Benfica last time out, the Gold and Greens have now lost three times in a row for the loss of seven goals.
While Ayestaran will allude to the fact that two of those setbacks have been a result of conceding in the 88th minute or beyond, it will only add to the former Liverpool assistant's frustration.
Forward Daniel dos Anjos has gone three games without a goal since his match-winning display against Santa Clara.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
Team News
Barring any late fitness issues, Pinheiro could stick with the Estoril side which edged out Maritimo before the international break.
However, only five players have started each of the first four fixtures, an indication that Pinheiro is not afraid to make alterations.
Carles Soria may be handed a recall at right-back, taking the place of David Bruno.
Tiago Dantas and Manu Hernando are back in contention for Tondela, but they may have to make do with a place on the substitutes' bench.
The same is likely to apply to Wolverhampton Wanderers loanee Renat Dadashov, who is still awaiting his first start.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Bebeto, Goncalves, Quaresma, Khacef; Dantas, Undabarrena, Pedro; Barbosa, Dos Anjos, Agra
Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:
Figueira; Soria, Africo, Ferraresi, Joaozinho; Geraldes, Gamboa, Franco; Chiquinho, Clovis, Lourenco
We say: Tondela 1-2 Estoril Praia
At some point this season, Estoril are expected to stop performing several levels above expectations. Nevertheless, that may not happen in this match, and we are backing the surprise package of the new Portuguese season to maintain their impressive form.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 47.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.31%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.72%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
