Woking and Wealdstone end their respective seasons of struggle in the National League by meeting at the Kingfield Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
While both sides have retained their fifth-tier status, they have spent the majority of the campaign towards the bottom of the table; the Cards sit 20th with 33 points and the Stones are 19th with 34.
Match preview
© Reuters
Woking, who were 10th in the National League table last season before it was curtailed, started 2020-21 with plenty of potential, winning three of their first four games.
However, they have only won five league matches since then and slowly slid down the placings. The strugglers have not picked up a victory in their last 14 games since the reverse fixture against Wealdstone in March, as Moussa Diarra's late goal secured a 1-0 win.
Alan Dowson's side managed to earn a point against promotion chasers Stockport County last weekend as Max Kretzschmar's strike was immediately cancelled out by Ben Gerring's own goal just before half time; that result ended a run of seven straight defeats for the Cards.
Only Barnet (35) have scored fewer times than Woking (40) this season, with Kretzschmar's goal against Stockport making him the club's outright top scorer in 2020-21 with seven, ahead of Kane Ferdinand.
However, Wealdstone have the league's worst defence, having conceded a staggering 97 goals this season – a rate of 2.37 per game.
This is the Stones' first season back in the National League after promotion from the National League South in 2019-20, and like Woking they showed early promise and were second after eight games of the campaign.
Yet they have suffered a similar downfall and have won on just four occasions since then, all at home. No team in the National League has achieved fewer wins (two), scored fewer goals (13) or picked up fewer points (11) away from home than Wealdstone this season.
Manager Dean Brennan resigned at the start of February and was replaced by his assistant Stuart Maynard, who has lost 16 of his 23 games in charge – including nine of the last 10.
The Stones were thrashed 4-1 by Solihull Moors last weekend, with top scorer Jacob Mendy only scoring a consolation penalty in the 87th-minute.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
Team News
Gerring will play his last game for Woking after nearly three years in Surrey, as the Torquay-based defender is unable to commit to the club's full-time training programme.
After a month out injured, Kretzschmar returned with a goal last week and should keep his place, but Ferdinand is likely to still be sidelined.
Striker Sam Ashford is without a goal in his last four games, his joint-longest drought since signing on loan from Crawley Town in January.
Jack Cawley and Dan Wishart both returned to Wealdstone's matchday squad last week after respective injuries and will now compete for a place in the starting lineup.
Midfielder Michael Phillips missed the defeat to Solihull Moors with a knock but could be available again at the Kingfield Stadium.
Woking possible starting lineup:
Ross; Lofthouse, Gerring, Cook, Hamblin; Cooper, Collier; Napa, Robinson, Kretzschmar; Ashford
Wealdstone possible starting lineup:
Shelvey; Harbottle, Cawley, Okimo, Mendy; Lo-Everton, Dyer, Charles, Wishart; Parish, Hughes
We say: Woking 2-1 Wealdstone
Both teams are horrifically out of form but will no doubt want to end the season on a high. Wealdstone's weak defence and poor away record suggests that Woking are the most likely to take the three points and leapfrog the Stones in the final league standings.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Woking win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Wealdstone had a probability of 24.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Woking win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest Wealdstone win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
