Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a TPS win with a probability of 58.27%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Rovaniemen Palloseura had a probability of 17.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a TPS win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.17%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Rovaniemen Palloseura win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that TPS would win this match.