Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 43.44%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 34.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.7%) and 3-1 (5.3%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.