Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.05%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.