Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.7%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.2%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.