We said: Central Coast Mariners 1-0 Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar have made a decent start under Green, although both matches they have won came at the Kayo Stadium, losing the two matches they have played on their travels, against Macarthur and Melbourne City.
As such, we expect Central Coast to get their push for the top two back on track with a narrow victory.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 50.81%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 26.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.