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Macarthur
Australian A-League | Gameweek 26
Apr 29, 2023 at 8am UK
Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)
Wellington Phoenix

Macarthur
0 - 1
Wellington


Skotadis (55'), Baccus (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Zawada (11')
Rufer (26'), Talay (34'), Laws (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Macarthur
Sunday, April 23 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Western Sydney 4-0 Wellington
Friday, April 21 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

We said: Macarthur 0-2 Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix do not head into this game in good form, but playing the bottom of the league could be the ideal way to change that as they look to secure their place in the finals series. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.

Result
MacarthurDrawWellington Phoenix
39.83% (-1.396 -1.4) 23.06% (-0.258 -0.26) 37.12% (1.66 1.66)
Both teams to score 65.09% (1.258 1.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.84% (1.538 1.54)36.16% (-1.532 -1.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.73% (1.664 1.66)58.27% (-1.66 -1.66)
Macarthur Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.3% (0.040999999999997 0.04)18.7% (-0.035999999999998 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.95% (0.062000000000005 0.06)50.05% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.06% (1.512 1.51)19.94% (-1.507 -1.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.91% (2.381 2.38)52.09% (-2.376 -2.38)
Score Analysis
    Macarthur 39.83%
    Wellington Phoenix 37.12%
    Draw 23.06%
MacarthurDrawWellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 8.45% (-0.226 -0.23)
1-0 @ 6.25% (-0.478 -0.48)
2-0 @ 5.24% (-0.395 -0.4)
3-1 @ 4.72% (-0.121 -0.12)
3-2 @ 3.81% (0.079 0.08)
3-0 @ 2.93% (-0.217 -0.22)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.035 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.23% (-0.089 -0.09)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 39.83%
1-1 @ 10.08% (-0.28 -0.28)
2-2 @ 6.81% (0.135 0.14)
0-0 @ 3.73% (-0.29 -0.29)
3-3 @ 2.05% (0.133 0.13)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 23.06%
1-2 @ 8.13% (0.153 0.15)
0-1 @ 6.01% (-0.174 -0.17)
0-2 @ 4.85% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
1-3 @ 4.37% (0.276 0.28)
2-3 @ 3.66% (0.235 0.24)
0-3 @ 2.61% (0.162 0.16)
1-4 @ 1.76% (0.186 0.19)
2-4 @ 1.48% (0.158 0.16)
0-4 @ 1.05% (0.109 0.11)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 37.12%

How you voted: Macarthur vs Wellington

Macarthur
33.3%
Draw
25.0%
Wellington Phoenix
41.7%
12
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2023 6am
gameweek 16
Macarthur
2-1
Wellington
Davila (32'), Najjar (49')
Uskok (34'), Drew (36'), Baccus (43')
Kraev (4')
Rufer (45+2'), van Hattum (90+5')
Nov 6, 2022 2am
gameweek 5
Wellington
4-1
Macarthur
Old (45+3'), Lewis (65'), Waine (67'), Kraev (75')
Rose (59')
Uskok (39')
Feb 6, 2022 5.05am
gameweek 13
Wellington
3-1
Macarthur
Piscopo (12' pen.), Sotirio (71', 78')
Sutton (90+3')
Davila (58')
Rose (50'), Mutch (61'), Najjar (73')
Nov 21, 2021 7.45am
gameweek 1
Macarthur
1-1
Wellington
Rose (61')
Uskok (41'), Rose (67')
Hooper (25' pen.)
Rufer (34'), Payne (84'), Ball (88')
Jun 4, 2021 10.05am
gameweek 22
Macarthur
0-3
Wellington

M'Mombwa (36'), Martis (61'), Najjar (78'), Susnjar (90+6')
Puyo (58')
Ball (45+1'), Hemed (46'), Waine (90+2')
Lewis (62'), Rufer (80')
rhs 2.0
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