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Australian A-League | Gameweek 23
Apr 10, 2023 at 7am UK
AAMI Park
Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne City
4 - 1
Wellington

MacLaren (34', 52'), Tilio (57', 83')
Talbot (70')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Ugarkovic (49')
Ball (90')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions
Last Game: Melbourne City 2-1 Victory
Wednesday, April 5 at 10am in Australian A-League

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Wellington 1-2 Victory
Saturday, April 1 at 3am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 68.99%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 13.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.36%) and 3-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawWellington Phoenix
68.99% (0.845 0.84) 17.24% (-0.191 -0.19) 13.77% (-0.649 -0.65)
Both teams to score 58.33% (-1.156 -1.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.44% (-0.616 -0.62)32.56% (0.621 0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.78% (-0.718 -0.72)54.22% (0.722 0.72)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.44% (0.027000000000001 0.03)8.56% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.41% (0.059000000000012 0.06)29.59% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.79% (-1.28 -1.28)36.21% (1.284 1.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27% (-1.326 -1.33)73% (1.329 1.33)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 68.99%
    Wellington Phoenix 13.77%
    Draw 17.24%
Melbourne CityDrawWellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.36% (0.328 0.33)
3-1 @ 7.8% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.67% (0.276 0.28)
1-0 @ 7.62% (0.258 0.26)
4-1 @ 4.79% (0.014 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.72% (0.175 0.18)
3-2 @ 3.96% (-0.133 -0.13)
4-2 @ 2.43% (-0.08 -0.08)
5-1 @ 2.36% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
5-0 @ 2.32% (0.088 0.09)
5-2 @ 1.2% (-0.038 -0.04)
6-1 @ 0.97% (0.005 0.01)
6-0 @ 0.95% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 68.99%
1-1 @ 7.74% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
2-2 @ 4.83% (-0.168 -0.17)
0-0 @ 3.1% (0.101 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.095 -0.1)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 17.24%
1-2 @ 3.93% (-0.141 -0.14)
0-1 @ 3.15% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.64% (-0.117 -0.12)
0-2 @ 1.6% (-0.059 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.33% (-0.097 -0.1)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 13.77%

Head to Head
Jan 2, 2023 2am
Wellington
1-3
Melbourne City
Ball (16')
Leckie (18'), MacLaren (51' pen., 90+6')
Bos (7')
Oct 30, 2022 6am
Melbourne City
2-2
Wellington
MacLaren (16' pen.), Tilio (34')
Sutton (79'), Barbarouses (90')
Payne (15')
May 9, 2022 10.05am
Melbourne City
2-1
Wellington
Sutton (3' og.), MacLaren (10')
Nabbout (30'), Tilio (54'), MacLaren (56'), Jenkinson (83')
Waine (54')
Piscopo (81'), Waine (90+2')
Apr 2, 2022 6.35am
Wellington
0-6
Melbourne City

Pennington (87'), Ball (90')
Surman (17' og.), Leckie (50'), Nabbout (59'), Good (68'), Tilio (76', 81')
May 16, 2021 7.05am
Melbourne City
2-2
Wellington
Tsubaki (58'), MacLaren (81')
O'Neill (90')
Hemed (37' pen., 88')
Lewis (79'), Hemed (89'), McGarry (90')
rhs 2.0
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