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Macarthur
Australian A-League | Gameweek 16
Feb 12, 2023 at 6am UK
Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)
Wellington Phoenix

Macarthur
2 - 1
Wellington

Davila (32'), Najjar (49')
Uskok (34'), Drew (36'), Baccus (43')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Kraev (4')
Rufer (45+2'), van Hattum (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Melbourne City 6-1 Macarthur
Saturday, February 4 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 3-1 Wellington
Friday, February 3 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

We said: Macarthur 1-1 Wellington Phoenix

While Wellington Phoenix head into this match higher up in the league table, that does not necessarily mean that they will take all three points from the match. Their recent defeat against opposition below them in the division showcases how unpredictable things can be, which could lead to them sharing the points here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (5.62%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Macarthur in this match.

Result
MacarthurDrawWellington Phoenix
37.94% (-0.411 -0.41) 24.31% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09) 37.76% (0.508 0.51)
Both teams to score 60.34% (0.359 0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.66% (0.459 0.46)42.34% (-0.454 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.26% (0.457 0.46)64.75% (-0.45099999999999 -0.45)
Macarthur Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.72% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)22.28% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.27% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)55.73% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.63% (0.46799999999999 0.47)22.37% (-0.462 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.13% (0.692 0.69)55.87% (-0.686 -0.69)
Score Analysis
    Macarthur 37.94%
    Wellington Phoenix 37.76%
    Draw 24.3%
MacarthurDrawWellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 8.41% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-0 @ 7.48% (-0.154 -0.15)
2-0 @ 5.62% (-0.117 -0.12)
3-1 @ 4.21% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.15% (0.021 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.81% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-1 @ 1.58% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.18% (0.008 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.06% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 37.94%
1-1 @ 11.2% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 6.3% (0.044 0.04)
0-0 @ 4.98% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-3 @ 1.57% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.3%
1-2 @ 8.39% (0.06 0.06)
0-1 @ 7.46% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-2 @ 5.59% (0.04 0.04)
1-3 @ 4.19% (0.087 0.09)
2-3 @ 3.14% (0.064 0.06)
0-3 @ 2.79% (0.058 0.06)
1-4 @ 1.57% (0.054 0.05)
2-4 @ 1.18% (0.04 0.04)
0-4 @ 1.04% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 37.76%

How you voted: Macarthur vs Wellington

Macarthur
29.0%
Draw
35.5%
Wellington Phoenix
35.5%
31
Head to Head
Nov 6, 2022 2am
Wellington
4-1
Macarthur
Old (45+3'), Lewis (65'), Waine (67'), Kraev (75')
Rose (59')
Uskok (39')
Feb 6, 2022 5.05am
Wellington
3-1
Macarthur
Piscopo (12' pen.), Sotirio (71', 78')
Sutton (90+3')
Davila (58')
Rose (50'), Mutch (61'), Najjar (73')
Nov 21, 2021 7.45am
Macarthur
1-1
Wellington
Rose (61')
Uskok (41'), Rose (67')
Hooper (25' pen.)
Rufer (34'), Payne (84'), Ball (88')
Jun 4, 2021 10.05am
Macarthur
0-3
Wellington

M'Mombwa (36'), Martis (61'), Najjar (78'), Susnjar (90+6')
Puyo (58')
Ball (45+1'), Hemed (46'), Waine (90+2')
Lewis (62'), Rufer (80')
Mar 28, 2021 6.05am
Wellington
0-1
Macarthur

Hemed (45+1'), Devlin (61')
Genreau (65')
Jovanovic (48'), Martis (90+2')
rhs 2.0
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