Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.