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Adelaide United
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Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
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Western United
Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 5
Nov 4, 2022 at 8.45am UK
AAMI Park
Newcastle Jets

Victory
4 - 0
Newcastle Jets

Brimmer (16' pen.), Ikonomidis (50'), D'Agostino (54'), Fornaroli (89' pen.)
D'Agostino (7')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Thurgate (18'), O'Neill (23'), Sotirio (62'), Natta (88')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 0-0 Victory
Saturday, October 29 at 5am in Australian A-League

Newcastle Jets

All competitions
Last Game: Western Sydney 2-0 Newcastle Jets
Friday, October 28 at 9.45am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawNewcastle Jets
49.09% (0.41500000000001 0.42) 23.69% (-0.453 -0.45) 27.22% (0.040000000000003 0.04)
Both teams to score 58.14% (1.58 1.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.66% (2.066 2.07)43.34% (-2.062 -2.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.26% (2.002 2)65.74% (-2 -2)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.22% (0.96299999999999 0.96)17.78% (-0.96 -0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.51% (1.632 1.63)48.5% (-1.628 -1.63)
Newcastle Jets Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.71% (1.107 1.11)29.29% (-1.104 -1.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.74% (1.338 1.34)65.26% (-1.335 -1.33)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 49.09%
    Newcastle Jets 27.22%
    Draw 23.68%
Melbourne VictoryDrawNewcastle Jets
2-1 @ 9.54% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
1-0 @ 9% (-0.543 -0.54)
2-0 @ 7.77% (-0.218 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.49% (0.182 0.18)
3-0 @ 4.47% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.37% (0.209 0.21)
4-1 @ 2.37% (0.148 0.15)
4-0 @ 1.93% (0.064 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.46% (0.132 0.13)
Other @ 3.71%
Total : 49.09%
1-1 @ 11.04% (-0.31 -0.31)
2-2 @ 5.86% (0.192 0.19)
0-0 @ 5.21% (-0.487 -0.49)
3-3 @ 1.38% (0.125 0.13)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23.68%
1-2 @ 6.78% (0.018 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.4% (-0.388 -0.39)
0-2 @ 3.93% (-0.113 -0.11)
1-3 @ 2.78% (0.091 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.4% (0.149 0.15)
0-3 @ 1.61% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 27.22%

Head to Head
Apr 16, 2022 10.45am
Newcastle Jets
1-2
Victory
Siatravanis (65')
Elsey (41')
D'Agostino (6'), Margiotta (90+3')
Folami (58')
Feb 12, 2022 8.45am
Victory
1-2
Newcastle Jets
Brimmer (45+2')
Brillante (28'), Velupillay (86')
Brillante (48')
Yuel (57'), Mikeltadze (70' pen.)
Elsey (5'), Mikeltadze (21')
Apr 10, 2021 6.05am
Newcastle Jets
1-2
Victory
Stamatelopoulos (18')
Thurgate (66'), Abimanyu (90+3')
Ryan (48'), Brooks (79')
Butterfield (63'), Lawrie-Lattanzio (81'), Lauton (90+1')
Feb 21, 2021 5.05am
Victory
0-1
Newcastle Jets

Roux (29')
Thurgate (72')
Boogaard (41'), Thurgate (56'), Millar (86')
Feb 22, 2020 8.30am
Newcastle Jets
1-1
Victory
O'Donovan (24')
Topor-Stanley (72')
Toivonen (49')
Toivonen (60'), Lesiotis (90')
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