Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.