League leaders AC Milan await the visit of near neighbours Atalanta BC on Saturday, with the opportunity arising for the Rossoneri to declare themselves 'winter champions' at Serie A's halfway stage.
This tantalising Lombardy derby pits Stefano Pioli's record-breaking outfit against an away side whose sparkling form has tailed off in the past week - with just two points and one goal from a pair of league fixtures.
Match preview
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One man dominated the headlines following Milan's most recent Serie A success on Monday - returning talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
'Ibra' is now just two goals away from reaching 500 goals in club football after the Swedish superstar's brace secured a 2-0 win in Cagliari. It was just the latest in a long line of game-winning interventions since his return to Italy last year and keeps the Rossoneri three points ahead of city rivals Inter Milan at the top of the table.
In their last six league outings, Stefano Pioli's team have racked up five wins and just one defeat, to Juventus - who they now lead by a significant ten-point margin.
Particularly telling - in terms of fortitude and depth of talent - has been that Milan have been heavily burdened by illness and injury during that spell, with star performers almost seamlessly replaced in Pioli's well-oiled winning machine.
Milan's accumulated total of 13 victories so far now leaves them requiring a win over Atalanta to equal their highest tally in the first half of a 20-team Serie A season - a record which was set back in 1950-51.
Apparently on the cusp of agreeing a deal for Chelsea centre-back Fikayo Tomori to bolster their shallow defensive options, the 18-time national champions are laser-focused on bringing Juve's dominance to end this term, but face one of their toughest assignments so far at San Siro this week.
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After a prolific stretch since mid-December, when Atalanta were averaging around three goals per game, Gian Piero Gasperini's side have hit a glitch in their past two outings, against Serie A strugglers Genoa and Udinese.
Nonetheless, level on points with Juventus and just one behind both Roma and Napoli, it is undoubted that La Dea are re-established as a team to fear.
Without a single defeat in 12 matches in all competitions, they make the short trip to Milan expecting to derail their more illustrious local rivals - even more so with recent precedent in their favour.
Milan have only managed to beat Atalanta once in their last 10 top-flight meetings and the Bergamo-based outfit remain undefeated in their last six away league games versus the Rossoneri.
However, profligacy such as shown in their two run-outs during the past week must be filtered out if they are to spoil the hosts' planned confirmation as Italy's 'Campioni d'Inverno' on Saturday - the return of Josip Ilicic and Duvan Zapata to the first XI would be a good place for Gasperini to start.
AC Milan Serie A form: WWWLWW
AC Milan form (all competitions): WWLWDW
Atalanta BC Serie A form: DWWWDD
Atalanta BC form (all competitions): WWWWDD
Team News
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Playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu is among those who are set to be absent for Milan on Saturday evening, having tested positive for COVID-19, though Rade Krunic and Ante Rebic both return from quarantine to contend for a place in the squad and marauding left-back Theo Hernandez's previous positive test has since been declared a 'false positive'.
Stefano Pioli's other absentees are suspended pair Alexis Saelemaekers and Alessio Romagnoli, plus Ismael Bennacer (thigh injury), so Pierre Kalulu and Sandro Tonali will continue to deputise.
New signings Mario Mandzukic and Soualiho Meite are set for spots on the Rossoneri bench, as Iberian trio Samu Castillejo, Brahim Diaz and Rafael Leao are most likely to start in support of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
The visitors have an almost fully fit squad to choose from, with only midfielder Mario Pasalic missing through injury. Therefore, Josip Ilicic, Matteo Pessina and Duvan Zapata are expected to return to the attack after being rested in midweek.
Despite scoring yet again on Wednesday, Luis Muriel will return to the bench - from where he often makes a serious second-half impact.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Kjaer, Kalulu, Hernandez; Kessie, Tonali; Castillejo, Diaz, Leao; Ibrahimovic
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Toloi, Romero, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Pessina, Ilicic; Zapata
We say: AC Milan 2-2 Atalanta BC
Both of these enterprising sides generally score for fun and should serve up a delight for neutrals and fans alike, as Atalanta are willing to go toe-to-toe with their bigger and bolder Lombardy neighbours.
A plethora of attacking talent at both coaches' disposal must surely create a fitting spectacle to draw the first half of the season to a belated close.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.97%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
