Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 28, 2023 at 5pm UK

Independence Stadium

Gambia
1 - 0
Mali

Colley (79')
Manneh (53')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Samassekou (47')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Gambia and Mali.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 2-0 Gambia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 2-0 Gambia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 52.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 19.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.59%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Gambia win it was 1-0 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.

Result
Gambia	Draw	Mali
19.63% ( -0.15)	27.45% ( 0.05)	52.92% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 39.32% (

-0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.13% (

-0.26)

63.87% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.91% (

-0.19)

83.09% (

0.18)

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.12% (

-0.32)

47.88% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.86% (

-0.24)

83.14% (

0.24)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.44% (

-0.07)

24.56% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.95% (

-0.1)

59.04% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Gambia 19.63%

Mali 52.92%

Draw 27.45%

Gambia	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 8.66% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.48% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.21% Total : 19.63%	1-1 @ 12.16% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.76% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.39% Total : 27.45%	0-1 @ 16.51% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 11.59% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 5.42% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.9% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 52.92%