Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 7pm UK

Mali
2 - 0
Gambia

Doumbia (3'), Traore (90+5' pen.)
Koita (34'), Kouyate (76')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Manneh (82')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Mali and Gambia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mauritania 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, January 24 at 4pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Gambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Gambia
Sunday, November 20 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 63.81%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 10.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 21.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.03%) and 3-0 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.97%), while for a Gambia win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Gambia
63.81% ( 0.01)	25.35% ( 0.12)	10.85% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 28.42% (

-0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

31.45% (

-0.49)

68.55% (

0.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.7% (

-0.33)

86.3% (

0.33)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.01% (

-0.21)

21.99% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.7% (

-0.32)

55.3% (

0.32)

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

36.43% (

-0.54)

63.57% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.63% (

-0.25)

92.37% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Mali 63.8%

Gambia 10.85%

Draw 25.34%

Mali	Draw	Gambia
1-0 @ 21.17% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 16.03% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.67% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 63.8%	0-0 @ 13.97% ( 0.25) 1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.34%	0-1 @ 6.33% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.91% Total : 10.85%